wsdl(SH:600995) Great Wall Securities·2025-09-08 09:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of 5% to 15% relative to the industry index over the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company is the only pumped storage and independent energy storage operator under the Southern Power Grid, benefiting from high-quality pumped storage project resources and the opportunities presented by electricity spot market reforms and the construction of a new power system [4][5]. - The company achieved a revenue of 3.301 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.38%, and a net profit of 832 million yuan, up 32.93% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report forecasts revenues of 7.318 billion, 9.099 billion, and 10.890 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 1.352 billion, 1.617 billion, and 1.888 billion yuan for the same years [4]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 5.630 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of -31.9% year-on-year. By 2024, revenue is expected to increase to 6.174 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 9.7% [1]. - The net profit for 2023 was 1.014 billion yuan, with a projected growth of -39.1% year-on-year, and is expected to rise to 1.126 billion yuan in 2024, showing an 11.1% increase [1]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 5.1% in 2023 to 7.8% by 2027 [1]. Business Segments - The pumped storage business generated a revenue of 2.186 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.99%, with a gross margin of 49.3% [2]. - The peak regulation hydropower business reported a generation of 4.35 billion kWh in the first half of 2025, a 23.33% increase year-on-year, with revenue of 882 million yuan, up 23.39% [3]. - The new energy storage business achieved a revenue of 178 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a growth of 28.27% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 30.7% [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to gradually expand the scale of its pumped storage plants participating in the electricity spot market, which is expected to enhance revenue from electricity sales [2]. - The report anticipates that the company will continue to benefit from favorable water conditions and the expansion of its energy storage capacity, with new projects expected to contribute to revenue growth [3][4].