森麒麟（002984）：公司动态研究：2025年上半年归母净利润短期承压，公司摩洛哥项目持续放量

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's tire production and sales volume have declined, leading to a short-term pressure on net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025 [2][3] - The company achieved revenue of 4.119 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.24% [2] - The company is expanding its Moroccan project, which is expected to contribute significantly to future growth [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 672 million yuan, a decrease of 37.64% year-on-year [3] - The sales expense ratio was 1.69%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points year-on-year; the management expense ratio was 2.43%, up 0.25 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 26 million yuan, down 96.30% year-on-year, primarily due to increased raw material procurement costs related to the Moroccan project [3] Production and Sales - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 15.5695 million tires, a decrease of 3.21% year-on-year, with sales of 14.8703 million tires, down 1.5% year-on-year [2] - The average tire price was 276.56 yuan per tire, an increase of 1.70% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.45% [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a global production capacity "golden triangle" in China, Thailand, and Morocco, enhancing its international competitiveness [8] - The company aims to establish eight smart manufacturing bases, three R&D centers, and three user experience centers over the next decade as part of its "833plus" strategy [8] - The company has entered the supply chains of major international automotive brands, enhancing its brand value [8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 10.366 billion yuan, 12.131 billion yuan, and 12.956 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10] - The projected net profits for the same years are 1.815 billion yuan, 2.313 billion yuan, and 2.746 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 9, and 7 [10][11]