YTCO(SH:600066) Guohai Securities·2025-09-08 10:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue year-on-year for the first half of 2025, but a significant increase of 16% in net profit attributable to shareholders [2][6] - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for new energy buses in the overseas market and the domestic market's potential from vehicle replacement policies [6][9] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 16.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.94 billion yuan, an increase of 15.6% [6] - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 9.71 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -0.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 51.3% [6] - The company’s bus sales in H1 2025 increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with total sales of 21,000 units [6] - The average revenue per vehicle in Q2 2025 was 789,000 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [6] Sales and Market Dynamics - The company’s sales of large and medium buses decreased by 4.8% year-on-year in H1 2025, while light bus sales surged by 74.2% [6] - The export of large and medium buses in Q2 2025 was 4,000 units, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while domestic sales fell by 15.6% [6] Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 42.5 billion, 47.5 billion, and 55 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 12%, and 16% [8][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 4.9 billion, 5.7 billion, and 6.5 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 20%, 15%, and 13% respectively [8][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 2.23, 2.58, and 2.92 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13, 12, and 10 times [8][9]