QYDL(SZ:002039) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-09-08 10:58Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's short-term performance is under pressure due to reduced water inflow, but the major shareholder's increase in holdings reflects confidence in the company's future [5][7] - The company reported a revenue of 883 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.23%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.54% [7] - The company has no approved projects under construction, and the water inflow in the first half of 2025 was 23% lower than the same period last year [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2023 is 1,990 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.83%, and is expected to grow to 2,379 million yuan by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 23.10% [6][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 265 million yuan in 2023, decreasing by 36.09%, and expected to rise to 401 million yuan by 2025, with a growth rate of 83.77% [6][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.62 yuan in 2023, increasing to 0.94 yuan by 2025 [6][8] Market and Operational Insights - The company operates under the Guizhou region's clean energy platform, with a total installed capacity of 4.14 million kilowatts, including 3.23 million kilowatts from hydropower [7] - The major shareholder, China Huadian, plans to increase its stake in the company, indicating strong support for its future development [7] - The company has a stable cash flow, with an average distributable cash flow of 750 million yuan over the past five years, suggesting potential for increased dividends [7]