Guangzhou Restaurant(SH:603043) Wanlian Securities·2025-09-08 12:58Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% in the next six months [14]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.991 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.16%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 39 million yuan, a decrease of 33.11% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence outside Guangdong, particularly in East and North China, which has led to a significant revenue increase of 16.16% from these regions [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming "moon cake year," which is anticipated to boost sales due to gifting demand [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 945 million yuan, representing a 5.09% year-on-year growth, while the net profit was a loss of 12 million yuan, a reduction in losses by 3.40% year-on-year [1]. - The overall gross margin decreased to 23.78%, down 2.09 percentage points year-on-year, with the sales expense ratio increasing to 11.29%, up 0.54 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Product and Channel Performance - Revenue from moon cake products reached 32 million yuan, up 1.32% year-on-year, while revenue from frozen foods was 527 million yuan, down 2.46% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s restaurant business generated 773 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 7.11%, although profits were pressured by weak consumer demand [1]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in its restaurant business as the consumer environment improves, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 534 million, 602 million, and 667 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.18%, 12.68%, and 10.86% [2][4].