玲珑轮胎（601966）：关税及原材料影响毛利率，汇兑受益带来Q2净利润提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Linglong Tire (601966) is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Linglong Tire's performance in Q2 was better than expected, primarily due to significant foreign exchange gains, despite a slight decline in profit when excluding these gains [5] - The company's tire production and sales volume continued to grow, but profitability was impacted by trade wars and raw material costs, leading to a decrease in gross margin [5] - The report anticipates a rebound in performance and valuation as the company navigates through current challenges, with a maintained "Outperform" rating [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 22,058 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 9.4%, and is expected to increase to 30,812 million by 2027, with a growth rate of 7.4% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,752 million in 2024, declining to 1,349 million in 2025, before recovering to 1,968 million by 2027 [2] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 15.5% in 2025 to 17.4% in 2027, reflecting a gradual recovery in profitability [2] Market Data - As of September 8, 2025, the closing price of Linglong Tire was 15.85 yuan, with a market capitalization of 23,197 million [3] - The stock has a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 and a dividend yield of 2.18% [3] - The company’s net asset value per share is 15.71 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 52.23% [3] Operational Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11,812 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, and a net profit of 854 million, a decrease of 7.7% [5] - The tire production volume reached approximately 45.89 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, while sales volume was 44.39 million units, up 11.2% [5] - The report notes that the Serbian production base is nearing completion, with plans for a new base in Brazil starting in 2025, indicating potential for future growth [5]