CHANGAN AUTOMOBILE-B(SZ:000625) Huachuang Securities·2025-09-09 05:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Changan Automobile, expecting the stock to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [3][18]. Core Views - Changan Automobile's total sales in August reached 234,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% and a month-on-month increase of 11%. The company anticipates a steady growth in sales driven by three strategic initiatives [2][3]. - The forecast for Changan's self-owned passenger vehicle sales from 2025 to 2027 is 1.84 million, 2.19 million, and 2.38 million units, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 19%, and 9% respectively [3]. - The revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards to 168.2 billion, 202.6 billion, and 218 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 20%, and 8% [3]. - The net profit estimates for the same period have been revised upwards to 7.2 billion, 10.3 billion, and 11.4 billion yuan, with price-to-earnings ratios of 17x, 12x, and 11x respectively [3]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2025 is projected at 168.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is estimated at 7.2 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 1% year-on-year [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.73 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 17x [4]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 1230.34 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 1228.85 billion yuan [5]. Sales Performance - In August, Changan's sales were driven by strong performances from its three new energy brands: Qiyuan (37,000 units, +31% month-on-month), Deep Blue (28,000 units, +40% year-on-year), and Avita (11,000 units, +180% year-on-year) [3][8]. - The company expects continued growth in new energy vehicle sales, with a target of 1.03 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 42% [8]. Strategic Focus - Changan is focusing on three main strategies: new energy, intelligent technology, and global expansion, which are expected to drive both volume and profit growth in 2025 [8]. - The company has initiated a global expansion plan, with a new factory in Thailand expected to add 100,000 units of overseas production capacity [8].