周大生（002867）：点评报告：受益于产品结构优化，盈利能力提升明显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% compared to the market in the next six months [2][13]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31% year-on-year in Q2 2025, despite a decline in revenue due to high gold prices affecting terminal sales [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 271 million yuan, which represents 45.7% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [1]. - The company's self-operated business revenue increased, while franchise business faced pressure, with franchise revenue down 59.12% year-on-year in H1 2025 [2]. - The gross profit margin improved significantly, rising by 11.96 percentage points year-on-year to 30.34% in H1 2025, driven by higher margins on gold jewelry products and pricing benefits from rising gold prices [2]. - The company is initiating a national treasure store cultivation plan, which is expected to enhance profitability through product and channel optimization in the future [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.597 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.92%, with a net profit of 594 million yuan, down 1.27% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue for Q1 and Q2 2025 showed significant declines of -47.28% and -38.47% year-on-year, respectively, while Q2 net profit saw a recovery with a growth of 31.32% [1]. Business Segments - As of June 2025, the company had 4,718 brand terminal stores, a net decrease of 290 stores since the beginning of the year, with franchise stores decreasing by 344 and self-operated stores increasing by 54 [2]. - Online business revenue for H1 2025 was 1.168 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.94% year-on-year, but the revenue share increased to 25.41% [2]. Profitability Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 to 1.00, 1.14, and 1.27 yuan per share, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 12, and 11 times based on the closing price on September 8, 2025 [2][3].