XfmGroup(SH:603225) Great Wall Securities·2025-09-09 06:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5]. Core Views - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the long filament industry, highlighting the company's leading integrated advantages [4][9]. - The company reported a year-on-year increase in both revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 33.49 billion and a net profit of 709 million [1][2]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the polyester filament industry, with a market share exceeding 15% and a production capacity of 8.45 million tons [9][11]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 33.49 billion, a 7.10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 709 million, up 17.28% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 6.42%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The company's operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was -530 million, a 19.68% increase year-on-year [3]. Industry Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity in the long filament industry, benefiting the overall industry environment [4][9]. - The company’s sales volume for POY, FDY, and DTY in the first half of 2025 increased by 3.8%, 2.4%, and 21.6% respectively, despite a decline in prices [4][9]. - The industry concentration is expected to continue rising, with the top six companies' market share increasing from approximately 85% in 2023 to 87% in 2024 [9]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 71.81 billion, 75.40 billion, and 82.74 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.45 billion, 1.87 billion, and 2.27 billion [12]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will increase from 0.95 in 2025 to 1.49 in 2027 [12].