LZLJ(SZ:000568) Guotou Securities·2025-09-09 08:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 162.08 CNY for the next 6 months [4][7]. Core Views - The company has shown a proactive and rational deceleration in growth, focusing on deepening its distribution channels [1]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 16.454 billion CNY, a decrease of 2.67% year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.663 billion CNY, down 4.45% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to experience revenue growth rates of -5.2%, 4.6%, and 7.5% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of -7.7%, 5.5%, and 8.8% respectively [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the revenue from high-end liquor and other liquor segments was 15.048 billion CNY and 1.350 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.09% and 16.96% respectively [2]. - The sales volume for high-end liquor increased by 13.33% while the volume for other liquor decreased by 6.69% [2]. - The gross margin and net margin for H1 2025 were 87.09% and 46.57%, showing a slight decline of 1.48 percentage points and 0.91 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 6.064 billion CNY, down 26.27% year-on-year [3]. Market Position and Strategy - Traditional sales channels remain the primary revenue source, while emerging channels have seen significant growth, particularly in e-commerce, which reported a revenue increase of 27.55% [2]. - The company is enhancing its digital marketing efforts to support the rapid expansion of new sales channels [2].