周大生（002867）：25Q2利润高增，受益于金价上涨及产品结构优化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [4][8][17]. Core Views - The company reported a significant profit increase in Q2 2025, benefiting from rising gold prices and optimized product structure, with a net profit of 3.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3% [1][4]. - The mid-term dividend proposal includes a cash dividend of 0.25 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 45% [1]. - The company has shown strong operational resilience and potential for brand matrix development, leading to an adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 43.9%, while the net profit was 590 million yuan, down 1.3% [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 1.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 38.5%, but net profit increased by 31.3% [1]. - The gross margin improved to 30.3% in H1 2025, up 12.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin reached 12.9%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points [3]. Business Segmentation - In H1 2025, revenue from various product categories showed significant variation: gold products declined by 50.9%, while embedded jewelry saw a smaller decline of 23.1% [2]. - Revenue from franchise and brand usage fees increased by 4.4%, while management service revenue decreased by 18.3% [2]. - The company operated 4,718 stores at the end of H1 2025, with a net decrease of 113 stores in Q2 2025 [2]. Profitability Metrics - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 1.12 billion yuan, with projected PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][6]. - The report highlights a strong improvement in profitability metrics, with a net profit margin of 17.7% in Q2 2025, up 9.4 percentage points year-on-year [3].