YYTH(SH:600096) Capital Securities·2025-09-09 11:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][3] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable operating performance in the first half of 2025, with a focus on its core business and a reduction in trading logistics operations, which significantly impacted revenue [7] - The phosphate chemical sector is expected to maintain its favorable conditions, supported by high phosphate rock prices and the company's substantial phosphate resources [6][7] - The company is projected to see a growth in net profit from 56.49 billion yuan in 2025 to 63.48 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS increasing from 3.10 yuan to 3.48 yuan [4][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 249.92 billion yuan, down 21.88% year-on-year, and a net profit of 27.61 billion yuan, down 2.81% year-on-year [7] - The trading logistics segment saw a significant revenue decline of 40.14%, while the fertilizer segment's revenue decreased by 11.26% [7] - The overall gross margin improved to 19.16%, up 2.55 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin increased to 12.17%, up 1.46 percentage points year-on-year [7] Market Conditions - The phosphate rock market remains in a high-demand phase, with prices around 1020 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025, indicating sustained high profitability [7] - The company holds nearly 800 million tons of phosphate reserves and has a production capacity of 14.5 million tons per year, positioning it as a key player in the phosphate mining sector [7] Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to decline slightly from 615.37 billion yuan in 2024 to 582.23 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of -1.4% [4] - Net profit is forecasted to grow from 53.33 billion yuan in 2024 to 63.48 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.1% [4] - The projected EPS is set to increase from 2.91 yuan in 2024 to 3.48 yuan in 2027, with a corresponding PE ratio of 8 in 2027 [4][7]