XGD(SZ:300130) Haitong Securities International·2025-09-09 11:55Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of 38.40 RMB, representing a potential upside of 65% from the current price of 31.93 RMB [1][10]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 was impacted by pressure on domestic acquiring rates due to new merchant expansion, while overseas business, particularly in cross-border payments, showed significant growth [1][10]. - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 589 million RMB, 747 million RMB, and 909 million RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.04 RMB, 1.32 RMB, and 1.60 RMB [1][10]. - The acquiring business revenue and gross profit margin have declined, with the company reporting a revenue of 1.53 billion RMB in H1 2025, down 3.17% year-on-year, and a net profit of 280 million RMB, down 38.61% year-on-year [1][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3.801 billion RMB, with a decline of 11.9% year-on-year, followed by a slight recovery in 2025 with an estimated revenue of 3.170 billion RMB [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to show significant fluctuations, with a forecast of 755 million RMB for 2023, dropping to 234 million RMB in 2024, and recovering to 589 million RMB in 2025 [3]. - The gross profit margin for the acquiring and value-added services segment is reported at 27.24%, down 15.14 percentage points year-on-year, while the electronic payment equipment segment shows a gross profit margin of 44.69%, up 1.26 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Business Performance - The company’s acquiring turnover for H1 2025 was 721.8 billion RMB, with a significant year-on-year decline in the acquiring rate to 0.131% from 0.150% in H1 2024, attributed to aggressive new merchant acquisition [10]. - Cross-border payment activities have accelerated, with the company successfully integrating with major e-commerce platforms like Amazon and TikTok, resulting in a 169% and 272% increase in merchant numbers and transaction volumes respectively from Q1 to Q2 2025 [10]. - The overseas equipment segment has targeted high-end markets, achieving nearly 200 million RMB in revenue, a year-on-year increase of over 80% [10].