中国重汽（000951）：重卡销量增速好于行业，预计出口仍将维持增长态势

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the second quarter showed steady growth, with a gross margin improvement both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. In the first half of the year, operating revenue reached 26.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 669 million yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year. The second quarter revenue was 13.253 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.7% [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.15 yuan for every 10 shares to all shareholders [5] - The penetration rate of the company's new energy heavy trucks has rapidly increased, and the expansion into overseas markets has contributed to the growth [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company adjusted its revenue, gross margin, and expense ratios, forecasting EPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.42, 1.76, and 2.07 yuan respectively. The average PE valuation for comparable companies in 2025 is 16 times, corresponding to a target price of 22.72 yuan [6] - The company’s heavy truck sales growth outperformed the industry average, with a total of 81,000 heavy trucks sold in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, compared to the industry growth rate of 6.9% [9] - The new energy heavy truck sales achieved significant growth, with the industry’s new energy heavy truck sales in the first half of 2025 reaching 79,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 186% [9] Financial Data Summary - The company’s operating revenue is projected to grow from 42.07 billion yuan in 2023 to 66.017 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1.08 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.435 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 18.0% [8] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 7.6% in 2023 to 9.4% in 2027 [8]