hbky(SH:600985) Changjiang Securities·2025-09-10 02:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, achieving a net profit of 1.032 billion yuan, down 64.85% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, the net profit was 340 million yuan, a decrease of 74.72% year-on-year and 50.82% quarter-on-quarter. The decline in coal prices and increased R&D expenses impacted performance, but improvements in chemical profitability and cost reductions in coal mining mitigated the effects of price drops. Looking ahead, multiple drivers suggest potential for medium to long-term growth [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company produced 8.91 million tons of coal, a decrease of 1.415 million tons (-13.7%) year-on-year, with sales of 6.476 million tons, down 1.557 million tons (-19%). In Q2 2025, coal production and sales were 4.6 million tons and 3.5 million tons, respectively, both down year-on-year but up quarter-on-quarter [12]. - The average selling price of coal in H1 2025 was 835 yuan per ton, down 309 yuan (-27%) year-on-year, while in Q2 2025, it was 747.6 yuan per ton, down 364 yuan (-33%) year-on-year and 190 yuan (-20%) quarter-on-quarter [12]. - The cost of coal per ton in H1 2025 was 469 yuan, down 96 yuan (-17%) year-on-year, and in Q2 2025, it was 426 yuan, down 111 yuan (-21%) year-on-year [12]. - Gross profit per ton of coal in H1 2025 was 366 yuan, down 213 yuan (-37%), and in Q2 2025, it was 322 yuan, down 253 yuan (-44%) year-on-year [12]. Chemical Business - The chemical business showed marginal improvement in profitability. In Q2 2025, the company sold 980,000 tons of coke, an increase of 14,000 tons (+17%) year-on-year, and 28,000 tons (+40%) quarter-on-quarter. The average selling price was 1,361 yuan per ton, down 576 yuan (-30%) year-on-year [12]. - Ethanol sales in Q2 2025 reached 130,000 tons, up 41% quarter-on-quarter, with an average selling price of 4,979 yuan per ton, up 4% quarter-on-quarter [12]. R&D and Future Outlook - R&D expenses significantly increased, amounting to 612 million yuan in Q2 2025, up 300 million yuan quarter-on-quarter. This increase is attributed to the initiation of R&D projects in Q1 2025 [12]. - The outlook for the company is optimistic, with expectations of a gradual recovery in coal prices since Q3 2025. Future growth is anticipated from the resumption of operations at the Xinhu Mine, the construction of the Tao Hutu project (8 million tons), and the commissioning of non-coal mines and power generation projects [12]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.2 billion, 2.4 billion, and 3.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 14, and 11 times based on the closing price on September 8, 2025 [12].