Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in integrated HCM SaaS, with a robust business performance and a potential profitability inflection point under the SaaS model. The company is expected to benefit from successful mergers and AI product commercialization in 2025, presenting new growth opportunities [1][4]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 9.45 billion RMB in 2025 to 15.63 billion RMB by 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.6%, 20.1%, 17.6%, and 17.1% respectively [3][10]. - Gross profit is expected to increase from 614 million RMB in 2025 to 1.168 billion RMB in 2028 [3]. - The company anticipates a return to profitability with a net profit of 200 million RMB by 2028, after losses of 3209 million RMB in 2024 and 147 million RMB in 2025 [3][10]. Revenue Growth Drivers - The cloud HCM solutions are the main growth driver, with revenue from this segment expected to reach 7.22 billion RMB in 2025, a 14.2% increase year-on-year, accounting for 76.4% of total revenue [24]. - The company has maintained a high customer retention rate, with expectations for continued improvement in customer acquisition and retention metrics [8][9]. AI and M&A Expansion - The company has embraced AI applications, with its AI Family product line achieving commercialization and generating over 6 million RMB in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by 2025 [4][8]. - The acquisition of Ku Academy is expected to drive the expansion of its learning business, enhancing its digital training and talent development solutions [8][9]. Valuation - The report employs both relative (PS) and absolute (FCFF) valuation methods, arriving at a target price of 11.86 HKD, reflecting a cautious approach to valuation [12][14].
北森控股（09669）：首次覆盖：HCMSaaS龙头，引领一体化人力AI应用新范式