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钧达股份(002865):行业竞争依然激烈,看好“反内卷”和公司的多元化海外布局

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company, indicating a positive outlook despite a downward adjustment in the rating [6]. Core Insights - The company is facing intense industry competition but is optimistic about industry self-discipline and its overseas expansion, which may lead to an early profit turning point [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -260 million yuan, down 58.5% year-on-year [3][4]. - The overseas sales proportion has significantly increased from 23.85% in 2024 to 51.87% in 2025, with overseas gross margin improving to 4.5% [4]. - The company is actively reducing costs and improving efficiency in N-type technology and is preparing for mass production of TBC batteries, with laboratory efficiency reaching 32.08% for perovskite tandem batteries [5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 46.20 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 13.5 billion yuan and a total share capital of 293 million shares [2]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 11.66 billion yuan, with net profits expected to improve to 6.5 billion yuan in 2026 and 10.6 billion yuan in 2027 [6][10]. - The company’s gross margin and net margin for the first half of 2025 were reported at 2.0% and -7.2%, respectively [3]. Future Projections - Revenue growth rates are forecasted at -46.66% for 2024, followed by 17.14% in 2025, 22.05% in 2026, and 21.65% in 2027 [10]. - The company is expected to achieve a positive net profit by 2026, with earnings per share projected to be 2.22 yuan in 2026 and 3.62 yuan in 2027 [10][11].