碳酸锂日报：媒体再爆枧下窝将近期复产，矿端对锂价牵引加强-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures price may continue its weak and volatile trend. The previous price increase in the market has already factored in all current positive factors. The market is currently strongly influenced by the expected resumption of production at the Jiangxi supply - end. Over the next 1 - 2 weeks, the lithium carbonate market may continue to trade around this event, and key price levels and changes in positions need to be closely monitored [3]. - In September, the market shows a situation where both supply and demand are growing, but the demand growth rate is faster, and it is expected that there will be a temporary supply shortage during the month [6]. - In the next one to two weeks, the market may maintain a low - level shock. Although the supply is tightening, the demand growth rate may slow down. There is a wait - and - see sentiment in the market, and the lack of clear upward momentum in the short term is limited by the declining inventory and strengthening basis [31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Day - to - day Market Summary - On September 9, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 72,900 yuan/ton, down 2.54% from the previous trading day, continuing the weak and volatile pattern. The basis strengthened significantly by 1,900 yuan to 1,600 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the main contract decreased sharply by 24.38% to 592,000 lots, and the open interest shrank by 3.51% to 351,000 lots [1]. 3.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained stable at 66.41%, but the proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene raw materials exceeded 60%, while the proportion of lithium mica decreased to 15%, possibly affected by the suspension of production at Ningde Times' Yichun mining area and the expansion project of lithium extraction from salt lakes [2]. - Demand side: The demand for new energy vehicles has moderately recovered. In August, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 55.3%. The demand for cobalt - acid lithium and cobalt tetroxide has increased. However, ternary material manufacturers have limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate remained at 33,895 yuan/ton. The procurement of cathode materials was relatively cautious [2]. - Inventory and warehouse receipts: Lithium carbonate inventory has declined for two consecutive weeks to 140,100 tons. The reduction in warehouse receipts confirms the marginal improvement in supply - demand, but the slow pace of destocking indicates that the restocking intensity during the peak season is lower than expected [2]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures price may continue its weak and volatile trend. The market has already priced in all current positive factors. The expected resumption of production at Jiangxi's supply end has a significant impact on the market. Over the next 1 - 2 weeks, the lithium carbonate market may continue to trade around this event, and key price levels and changes in positions need to be closely monitored [3]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On September 9, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate was 72,900 yuan/ton, down 1,900 yuan or 2.54% from the previous day. The basis was 1,600 yuan/ton, up 1,900 yuan or 633.33%. The open interest of the main contract was 351,340 lots, down 3.51%, and the trading volume was 591,675 lots, down 24.38%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 74,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3.5 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - Spot market quotes: On September 9, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,589 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market was in the peak demand season, and there was still rigid demand from downstream. However, with the upward adjustment of the futures price this week, downstream procurement activities slowed down slightly compared to last week. The supply side showed a structural differentiation [6]. - Downstream consumption situation: According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from August 1 - 31, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 1.079 million, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 55.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 7.535 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% [7]. - Industry news: - Since the official suspension of production at Ningde Times' Jiangxi Yichun Jianxiaowo mining area on August 10, the "butterfly effect" has spread throughout the entire industrial chain [8]. - On August 18, Lanxiao Technology won the bid for the adsorption system of the expansion and renovation project of the comprehensive utilization of old brine for lithium extraction from Lop Nur Salt Lake of SDIC Xinjiang Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., with a bid amount of 35.7712 million yuan [9]. - On August 15, Ningde Times' Jianxiaowo mining area announced a suspension of production due to the expiration of the mining license, which would directly affect the price of lithium carbonate. Eight local mines in Yichun needed to re - apply by September 30 [9].