CATL(SZ:300750) Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-10 07:51Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: Buy put options [4] Core Viewpoints - The futures market of lithium carbonate may decline due to the news of mine restart and weak overall commodity sentiment. The price will gradually return to the fundamentals if the previously shut - down mines resume production [2][3]. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 74,740 yuan/ton and closed at 72,900 yuan/ton, a - 2.62% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 591,675 lots, and the open interest was 351,340 lots (364,137 lots the previous day). The current basis was - 300 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 38,101 lots, a change of 650 lots from the previous day [2]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,700 - 75,500 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,750 - 72,950 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 850 US dollars/ton, also unchanged. The market is in the peak demand season with downstream rigid demand, but procurement activities slowed slightly this week as the futures price rebounded. The supply side shows a structural differentiation, with lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounting for over 60% and that from lepidolite dropping to 15%. In September, supply and demand are both increasing, but demand is growing faster, and overall supply is expected to be tight [3]. Strategy - The futures market declined significantly after oscillation, affected by weak commodity sentiment and the possible approval of Jiangxi manufacturers. The short - term spot supply - demand pattern is good, with reduced inventory and production. If the previously shut - down mines resume production, the price will return to fundamentals, and the futures market may decline. Attention should be paid to mine operation, and participants should manage risks [3].