Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-10 08:07Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 10, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0012647), Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) [1] - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Risk Strategies Inventory Management for Planting Entities - Behavior: Harvest new soybeans in autumn with high selling demand but large short - term selling pressure [2] - Strategy: Take advantage of futures price rebound to lock in planting profits by short - selling soybean No. 1 futures [2] - Hedging Tool: A2511 [2] - Buying/Selling Direction: Short [2] - Hedging Ratio: 30% [2] - Suggested Entry Range: 4000 - 4050 [2] Inventory and Procurement Management For Sellers - Behavior: With soybeans in concentrated listing, sellers' bargaining power weakens [2] - Strategy: Sell call options to increase the selling price [2] - Hedging Tool: A2511 - C - 4050 [2] - Buying/Selling Direction: Sell [2] - Hedging Ratio: 30% [2] - Suggested Entry Range: 40 - 50 [2] For Buyers - Behavior: Concerned about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs [2] - Strategy: Wait for spot procurement in the medium - term and focus on forward procurement management [2] - Hedging Tool: A2603, A2605 [2] - Buying/Selling Direction: Long [2] - Suggested Entry Range: Wait for autumn price guidance [2] Group 3: Core Contradictions - The soybean market is waiting for new - season guidance. Mid - and downstream entities are highly cautious. Auctions are ongoing, and trade - end purchases are cautious. With the new season not fully arrived, the actual market pressure has limited increase, and prices are stable but slightly weak [2] - The rebound of soybean No. 1 futures lacks capital and fundamental support. The market volume shrank and closed lower yesterday. With capital outflows, the futures market is waiting for clearer fundamental guidance. Given the increasing likelihood of a bumper harvest, prices are expected to decline [2] - The consumption recovery represented by the double - festival stocking will face the pressure of new - season listings, and prices will be under pressure [2] Group 4: Bullish Factors - The remaining grain at the grass - roots level is almost exhausted, and traders have generally cleared their inventories. Without concentrated selling pressure, the current price decline is limited [2] - The concentrated consumption scenarios in September are gradually recovering, and there is an expectation of a recovery in edible demand [2] Group 5: Bearish Factors - On September 9, China Grain Reserves Corporation organized a one - way competitive auction of 37,112 tons of domestic soybeans, with only 1,000 tons sold, a significant drop in the transaction rate compared to the full - transaction two - way auction on the 8th, highlighting weak demand and high selling difficulty [3] - The expectation of improved quality and increased yield of new - season soybeans remains unchanged. Without extreme weather, the short - term supply surplus will be the main driving factor of the fundamentals, and prices will continue to be under pressure [3] - Attention should be paid to whether there will be two auctions this week. In the context of the upcoming new - season listing, the impact of auctions may be magnified emotionally [3] Group 6: Futures Price Changes | Contract | September 8, 2025 | September 9, 2025 | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean No. 1 11 | 3977 | 3968 | - 9 | - 0.23% | | Soybean No. 1 01 | 3976 | 3969 | - 7 | - 0.18% | | Soybean No. 1 03 | 3976 | 3970 | - 6 | - 0.15% | | Soybean No. 1 05 | 4020 | 4014 | - 6 | - 0.15% | | Soybean No. 1 07 | 4023 | 4016 | - 7 | - 0.17% | | Soybean No. 1 09 | 4067 | 4067 | 0 | 0.00% | [3]