YYTH(SH:600096) NORTHEAST SECURITIES·2025-09-10 09:09Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][11]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.992 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 21.88%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.761 billion yuan, down 2.81% year-on-year [2]. - The company has optimized its business structure, leading to an increase in gross margin, with the overall gross margin for Q2 2025 reaching 21.25%, up 4.02 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 6.56 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company is one of the largest fertilizer producers in China, with a total fertilizer production capacity of 10 million tons per year, including urea, phosphate, and compound fertilizers [4]. Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.988 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 33.90% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 7.82%. However, the net profit for the same period was 1.472 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.52% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.15% [2][3]. - The average prices of major products in the first half of 2025 were as follows: phosphate at 3,152 yuan/ton (down 6.7%), compound fertilizer at 3,179 yuan/ton (up 6.5%), and urea at 1,754 yuan/ton (down 19.4%) [3]. Future Projections - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2025 to be 54.564 billion yuan, with net profits projected at 5.599 billion yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 9X [4][5]. - The expected revenue for 2026 and 2027 is 57.416 billion yuan and 57.461 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 5.910 billion yuan and 6.109 billion yuan [4][5]. Market Data - As of September 9, 2025, the company's closing price was 27.70 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 50.497 billion yuan [6]. - The stock has shown absolute returns of 12% over the past month, 25% over the past three months, and 47% over the past year [8].