珠江啤酒（002461）：高档啤酒销量增速亮眼，盈利能力稳步提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [4] Core Views - The company has shown impressive growth in high-end beer sales, with a significant increase in profitability. The revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 3.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 612 million yuan, up 22.51% year-on-year [1][11] - The gross margin and net margin have steadily improved, with the gross margin for the first half of 2025 at 51.85%, an increase of 2.81 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin at 19.44%, up 2.34 percentage points year-on-year [2][11] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product matrix and brand presence through various cultural and promotional events, which is expected to strengthen its market position [10][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.198 billion yuan, with a net profit of 612 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.09% and 22.51% respectively. The second quarter saw revenues of 1.971 billion yuan, up 4.96% year-on-year, and a net profit of 455 million yuan, an increase of 20.17% year-on-year [1][2] - The company’s beer sales volume reached 734,100 tons in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.10% [3] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 51.85%, with a net margin of 19.44%. The second quarter saw a gross margin of 56.11% and a net margin of 23.35% [2][11] - The company’s selling, administrative, and research expenses showed slight declines, contributing to an overall decrease in the expense ratio [2] Sales Channel Performance - The company’s revenue from different sales channels in the first half of 2025 was as follows: traditional channels 2.903 billion yuan, supermarkets 126 million yuan, night venues 38 million yuan, and e-commerce 33 million yuan. The growth rates were 6.57%, 49.29%, -14.58%, and 47.72% respectively [3] - High-end products accounted for 76.25% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 15.86%, indicating a strong market demand for premium offerings [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in net profit, with forecasts of 951 million yuan for 2025, 1.021 billion yuan for 2026, and 1.110 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting growth rates of 17.43%, 7.29%, and 8.72% respectively [11] - The company is actively enhancing its product offerings and brand engagement through various cultural initiatives, which is anticipated to further boost its market presence and profitability [10][11]