Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-10 10:47Report Information - Report Title: Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 10, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Fu Xiaoyan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The intraday trend of the container shipping index (European line) futures was in line with expectations, with the main contract being undervalued but lacking driving forces, resulting in a stalemate [3]. - For hedgers, the strategy suggested yesterday can be attempted. When the futures price does not drop significantly (>30%), the "selling options + buying futures" combination has a high probability of maintaining profitability [3]. - Operationally, it is recommended to enter and exit quickly [3]. Summary by Directory EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about falling freight rates, to prevent losses, one can short container shipping index futures based on the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a suggested selling entry range of 1350 - 1450 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book shipping spaces according to order situations, to prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs, one can buy container shipping index futures at present to determine the booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a suggested buying entry range of 1150 - 1250 [2]. Core Contradictions - In the morning session of the container shipping index (European line) futures, there was obvious early buying by bulls, but they were defeated by the weak spot market expectations. The market was in a stalemate between bulls and bears and ended in consolidation [3]. - As of the close, all contracts had varying degrees of position increases, with the EC2512 contract having the largest increase in positions. Except for the two rebounding forward contracts, it had the smallest decline [3]. - From the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional holders on the exchange, in the EC2510 contract, bulls reduced their positions by 293 to 25,913, bears increased their positions by 288 to 28,509, and the trading volume decreased by 7,636 to 17,281 (bilateral) [3]. Bullish Interpretations - In July 2025, China's automobile exports continued to show a trend of increasing volume and price. The number of automobile exports reached 694,000, a year-on-year increase of 25.6% and a month-on-month increase of 12.1%. The total import and export volume of automobile products was $24.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 6.4%. Among them, the export amount was $20.48 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.6% and a month-on-month increase of 6% [4]. - MSC, Maersk, and HMM have successively announced their suspension plans for the Golden Week [4]. Bearish Interpretations - The net profit of the global container shipping industry declined significantly in the second quarter of this year. According to a report by a shipping finance analyst, the shipping industry achieved a net income of $4.4 billion in the second quarter, a sharp drop of 56% from the first quarter's $9.9 billion and a significant decline of 63.7% compared to the same period in 2024 [5]. - According to the daily "Freight Rate Note" data, in mid - to late September, the average online booking quote for 20GP containers by shipping companies continued to decline, while the average quote for 40GP containers remained stable [5]. EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 10, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 299.06 points, with a daily increase of 1.30 points and a weekly decrease of 151.54 points [7]. - The basis of EC2512 was -107.54 points, with a daily increase of 8.90 points and a weekly decrease of 179.94 points [7]. - The basis of EC2602 was 42.46 points, with a daily increase of 3.40 points and a weekly decrease of 197.14 points [7]. - The basis of EC2604 was 320.46 points, with a daily increase of 10.70 points and a weekly decrease of 198.04 points [7]. - The basis of EC2606 was 122.56 points, with a daily decrease of 9.40 points and a weekly decrease of 209.94 points [7]. - The basis of EC2608 was -33.54 points, with a daily increase of 8 points and a weekly decrease of 197.64 points [7]. EC Price and Spreads - On September 10, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1267.4 points, with a daily decrease of 0.10% and a weekly decrease of 4.20% [7]. - The closing price of EC2512 was 1674.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.53% and a weekly decrease of 1.60% [7]. - The closing price of EC2602 was 1524.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.22% and a weekly decrease of 0.65% [7]. - The closing price of EC2604 was 1246.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.28% and a weekly decrease of 0.73% [7]. - The closing price of EC2606 was 1443.9 points, with a daily increase of 0.66% and a weekly increase of 0.19% [7]. - The closing price of EC2608 was 1600.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.39% and a weekly decrease of 0.59% [7]. Container Shipping Spot Quotes - On September 18, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP containers was $1050, a decrease of $52 compared to the September 17 schedule, and the total quote for 40GP containers was $1760, a decrease of $88 compared to the September 17 schedule [9]. - On September 18, for Hapag - Lloyd's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the quote for 20GP containers was $1035, an increase of $100 compared to the September 17 schedule, and the quote for 40GP containers was $1535, a decrease of $200 compared to the September 17 schedule [9]. - On September 25, for ONE's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the quote for 20GP containers was $1244, a decrease of $300 compared to the September 22 schedule, and the quote for 40GP containers was $1943, unchanged from the September 22 schedule [9]. Shipping Index Changes - The SCFIS European route index was 1566.46 points, a decrease of 207.14 points or 11.68% compared to the previous value [10]. - The SCFIS US - West route index was 980.48 points, a decrease of 33.42 points or 3.30% compared to the previous value [10]. - The SCFI European route was $1315/TEU, a decrease of $166 or 11.21% compared to the previous value [10]. - The SCFI US - West route was $2189/FEU, an increase of $266 or 13.83% compared to the previous value [10]. - The XSI European line was $2324/FEU, a decrease of $32 or 1.36% compared to the previous value [10]. - The XSI US - West line was $2248/FEU, an increase of $54 or 2.5% compared to the previous value [10]. - The FBX composite freight rate index was $2080/FEU, an increase of $44 or 2.16% compared to the previous value [10]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 9, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.830 days, a decrease of 0.393 days compared to September 8 and 1.434 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.697 days, an increase of 0.374 days compared to September 8 and 1.183 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Yantian Port was 0.807 days, a decrease of 0.134 days compared to September 8 [17]. - The waiting time at Singapore Port was 0.569 days, a decrease of 0.193 days compared to September 8 and 0.453 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Jakarta Port was 1.422 days, an increase of 0.329 days compared to September 8 and 1.454 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Long Beach Port was 1.849 days, an increase of 0.247 days compared to September 8 and 1.925 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Savannah Port was 1.953 days, an increase of 0.980 days compared to September 8 and 1.403 days compared to the same period last year [17]. Ship Speeds and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - On September 9, 2025, the speed of container ships with a capacity of over 8000 TEU was 15.852 knots, a decrease of 0.017 knots compared to September 8 and 15.904 knots compared to the same period last year [26]. - The speed of container ships with a capacity of over 3000 TEU was 14.789 knots, a decrease of 0.084 knots compared to September 8 and 15.205 knots compared to the same period last year [26]. - The speed of container ships with a capacity of over 1000 TEU was 13.29 knots, an increase of 0.062 knots compared to September 8 and 13.525 knots compared to the same period last year [26]. - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages was 20, a decrease of 2 compared to September 8 and an increase of 8 compared to the same period last year [26].