白糖产业风险管理日报-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in the 25/26 crushing seasons in India and Thailand, and the recent increase in Brazil's crushing volume, especially with a sugar - making ratio above 55%, has suppressed international sugar prices. In China, apart from a large amount of imports in recent months, consumption has declined year - on - year, and the expected increase in production in the new crushing season has raised market concerns [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management - Price Range Forecast: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5200 - 5700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 5.13% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [3]. - Inventory Management Strategies: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about falling sugar prices, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2611) at 5600 - 5650 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (SR511C5600) at 40 - 50 with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - Procurement Management Strategies: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2611) at 5450 - 5500 with a 25% hedging ratio, and sell put options (SR511P5400) at 20 - 25 with a 25% hedging ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - High expectations of increased production in India and Thailand's 25/26 crushing seasons, increased crushing volume and high sugar - making ratio in Brazil, large imports in China, decreased consumption, and expected production increase in the new crushing season are suppressing sugar prices [4]. 3.3利多 and利空 Factors - 利多 Factors: India's 2024/25 crushing season's ending sugar inventory is sufficient for domestic consumption in 2025. China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder. Brazil has increased the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol and biodiesel. Trump said Coca - Cola will use sugar as a beverage additive again, and Pepsi may follow [5]. - 利空 Factors: In the 2024/25 crushing season, Guangxi's sugar production increased despite less cane input. Analysts expect Brazil's 25/26 crushing season's sugar production to increase by 5% to 46 million tons. Thailand's 24/25 crushing season's production is expected to reach 10.39 million tons. India's early monsoon may lead to a strong production recovery in the 25/26 crushing season. China's sugar imports in July increased significantly, and syrup imports also had some changes. Brazil's mid - southern region had a large increase in sugar production in the first half of August. China's sugar sales and inventory data show some trends [5][6][7][8]. 3.4 Price Data - Base Difference: On September 10, 2025, the base differences between different regions and futures contracts showed various daily and weekly changes [9]. - Futures Price and Spread: Futures contract prices such as SR01 - SR11 and spreads between different contracts had different daily and weekly changes on September 10, 2025 [10]. - Spot Price and Regional Spread: Spot prices in regions like Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao, as well as regional spreads, had different daily and weekly changes on September 10, 2025 [11]. - Sugar Import Price: Import prices from Brazil and Thailand, both within and outside the quota, and the price differences between domestic regions and imported sugar had daily and weekly changes on September 10, 2025 [12][13].