南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the price trend of lithium carbonate futures lies in the interaction between supply - side disturbances and the peak - season expectations on the demand side [2]. - The news of the resumption of production at Ningde era's Jianxiawo lithium mine has caused abnormal fluctuations in the lithium carbonate futures price, indicating the spread of irrational market sentiment [2]. - The social inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks. Although the overall inventory is still at a historical high, the downstream inventory is in a healthy and safe range, showing the resilience of terminal demand [2]. - The demand side provides key support for the price. The "Golden September" peak - season expectation and the toughness of the terminal structure jointly lay the foundation for demand. The production schedule of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase by more than 5% month - on - month [4]. - Even if the Jianxiawo mine resumes production in November at the earliest, it will not affect the downstream demand for lithium carbonate during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will probably show a wide - range oscillation pattern in the next month, with the overall oscillation range around 68,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price Interval Prediction - The strong resistance level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 76,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 40.6%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) is 67.2% [2]. 3.2 Lithium - battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Suggestions 3.2.1 Purchase Management - Product price has no correlation: For enterprises with a plan to produce battery materials in the future and worried about the increase in the purchase cost of lithium carbonate, they can buy corresponding futures contracts (20% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: 67,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton) or sell put options (30% hedging ratio, LC2511 - P - 68000) [2]. - Product price has correlation: Enterprises can sell futures main contracts (70% hedging ratio, based on purchase cost) or buy put options and sell call options (50% hedging ratio, based on purchase cost) when purchasing lithium carbonate to lock in the value of goods; for those worried about the decrease in sales profit due to price decline when selling lithium carbonate, they can sell corresponding futures contracts (80% hedging ratio, based on sales profit) or buy put options and sell call options (40% hedging ratio, based on sales profit) [2]. 3.2.2 Sales Management - For enterprises purchasing lithium - containing raw materials to produce finished products, worried about the decrease in sales profit due to price decline when selling finished products, they can sell futures main contracts (80% hedging ratio, based on purchase cost) or buy put options and sell call options (60% hedging ratio, based on purchase cost) [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory Management - For enterprises with inventory of raw materials/lithium carbonate highly correlated with price and worried about inventory depreciation due to future price decline, they can sell futures main contracts (60% - 80% hedging ratio, 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton) or sell call options (40% - 60% hedging ratio, LC2511 - C - 79000) [2]. 3.3 Futures Data - Lithium carbonate main contract: The closing price is 70,720 yuan/ton, down 2,180 yuan (- 2.99%) daily and 1,160 yuan (- 1.61%) weekly; the trading volume is 751,480 lots, up 159,805 lots (27.01%) daily and 308,680 lots (69.71%) weekly; the open interest is 340,814 lots, down 10,526 lots (- 3.00%) daily and 5,234 lots (- 1.51%) weekly [10]. - Lithium carbonate weighted contract: The closing price is 70,827 yuan/ton, down 2,098 yuan (- 2.88%) daily and 1,082 yuan (- 1.51%) weekly; the trading volume is 1,063,402 lots, up 268,464 lots (33.77%) daily and 467,948 lots (78.59%) weekly; the open interest is 796,180 lots, down 10,197 lots (- 1.26%) daily and up 32,227 lots (4.22%) weekly [10]. 3.4 Spot Data 3.4.1 Lithium Ore Daily Quotes - The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,815 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (- 2.68%) daily and 70 yuan (- 3.71%) weekly [21]. - The average price of lithium spodumene (Li2O: 3 - 4%) is 3,130 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan (- 4.13%) daily and 210 yuan (- 6.29%) weekly [21]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide Daily Quotes - The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,200 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan (- 1.59%) daily and 2,400 yuan (- 3.26%) weekly [24]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan (- 1.54%) daily and 2,450 yuan (- 3.23%) weekly [24]. 3.4.3 Downstream Daily Quotes - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 33,620 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan (- 0.81%) daily [29]. - The average price of lithium manganese iron phosphate is 44,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (- 0.44%) daily [30]. 3.5 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Lithium carbonate brand basis quotes: For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) is 100 yuan, with no daily change [32]. - Lithium carbonate warehouse receipt quantity: The total warehouse receipt quantity is 38,101 lots, with no daily change [35]. 3.6 Cost and Profit No specific summary data provided in the text for cost and profit other than the presentation of relevant charts.