Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's innovative research and development capabilities have been validated, with a comprehensive advancement in its metabolic pipeline [7][15] - The company has successfully authorized UBT251 to Novo Nordisk, indicating strong clinical potential and efficient overseas clinical progression [15][27] - The company is expected to achieve peak domestic sales of UBT251 for weight loss indications at 4.3 billion yuan by 2032 [18][19] Summary by Sections 1. Short-term Pressure on Main Business - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.519 billion yuan (+4.8% YoY) and net profit of 1.894 billion yuan (+27.02% YoY) [12] - The demand for antibiotics has impacted main business profits, but the negative effects are expected to diminish as high base effects are eliminated [12][14] 2. Comprehensive Innovative Pipeline Layout - UBT251 has been successfully authorized to Novo Nordisk, showcasing the company's validated R&D capabilities [15] - UBT48128, based on the structure of Eli Lilly's orforglipron, has shown significant weight loss potential in preclinical studies [24] - UBT37034 has received FDA approval for clinical trials, targeting the neuropeptide Y2 receptor, which is crucial for obesity treatment [27] 3. Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 138.6 billion yuan, 150.0 billion yuan, and 162.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with YoY growth rates of 0.7%, 8.2%, and 8.4% respectively [31] - The net profit is expected to be 31.1 billion yuan, 31.0 billion yuan, and 33.8 billion yuan for the same period, with YoY growth rates of 17.0%, -0.3%, and 9.1% respectively [31] - The report maintains the "Buy" rating based on the successful R&D progress of UBT251 and the robust pipeline of UBT48128 and UBT37034 [31]
联邦制药（03933）：创新研发能力已被验证，代谢管线全面推进