TKGF(SH:601233) Great Wall Securities·2025-09-11 06:21Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expectation of a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5][19]. Core Views - The company has maintained stable performance in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 44.158 billion and a net profit of 1.097 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.93% in net profit despite an 8.41% decline in revenue [1][2]. - The company's strategy includes expanding into the coal sector and promoting an integrated industrial chain, which is expected to enhance competitiveness and profitability [10][11]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the filament industry, potentially leading to a recovery in industry conditions [4][9]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 98.046 billion, with a net profit of 2.112 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 75.7% [1][11]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 6.76%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities improved by 83.87% year-on-year, indicating better cash management [3]. Industry Insights - The filament industry is expected to benefit from the government's "anti-involution" policies, which aim to eliminate low-price competition and promote product quality [4][9]. - The overall effective capacity in the polyester filament industry was 53.38 million tons as of the first half of 2025, with limited new capacity additions, suggesting a stable supply environment [9]. - The demand for polyester filament is projected to increase due to seasonal factors and improved export performance, which may support price recovery [9].