CATL(SZ:300750) Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-11 11:44Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue its weak and volatile trend. The current market contradiction lies in the rising supply expectations and the slowdown of demand realization rhythm. Although the futures price is suppressed by the mine - restart news, factors such as spot de - stocking, strengthening basis, and rigid procurement during the peak season still support the price. Further price drops may trigger industrial hedging buying. In the future, capital's attention to relevant mine - end topics such as Jianxiaowo may increase, and the two - way disturbance from the news is expected to intensify [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Futures Market Data Analysis - 主力合约与基差: On September 10, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, a 2.99% decline from the previous day, showing a continuous decline trend. The basis strengthened to 2,280 yuan/ton [1]. - 持仓与成交: The open interest decreased by 3% to 341,000 lots, declining for five consecutive trading days. The trading volume rebounded significantly by 27% to 751,000 lots [1]. - 产业链供需及库存变化分析 - 供给端: Ningde Times' subsidiary planned to restart the Jianxiaowo lithium mine in November, which may release an increment of spodumene raw materials. However, short - term supply still depends on existing production capacity. The output of lithium carbonate from the spodumene route accounts for over 60%, while the proportion of the salt lake and mica routes has decreased. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at 66.41% without an increase, limiting the short - term supply growth rate [2]. - 需求端: In August, new energy vehicle retail sales increased by 5% year - on - year and 9% month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 55.3%, showing the resilience of peak - season demand. However, there was a differentiation in the cathode material segment. The discount coefficient of ternary materials may be raised in September, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.8% month - on - month, reflecting an increase in downstream cost sensitivity. The price of cobalt - acid lithium in the cell segment jumped by 5% to 6.25 yuan/Ah, but its impact on lithium carbonate demand was limited [2]. - 库存与仓单: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.74% to 140,000 tons, with two consecutive weeks of de - stocking. Coupled with the narrowing of the spot discount and active downstream bargain - hunting purchases, it indicated a marginal improvement in short - term supply and demand in the spot market [2]. - 价格走势判断: The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue its weak and volatile trend. The market contradiction is concentrated between the rising supply expectations and the slowdown of demand realization rhythm. Although the futures price is suppressed by the restart news, spot de - stocking, strengthening basis, and peak - season rigid procurement still support the price. Further price drops may trigger industrial hedging buying. In the future, capital's attention to relevant mine - end topics may increase, and the two - way disturbance from the news is expected to intensify [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - 价格变动: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 2,180 yuan to 70,720 yuan/ton, a 2.99% decline. The basis increased by 680 yuan to 2,280 yuan/ton, a 42.50% increase. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 10,526 lots to 340,814 lots, a 3.00% decline. The trading volume of the main contract increased by 159,805 lots to 751,480 lots, a 27.01% increase. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,500 yuan to 73,000 yuan/ton, a 2.01% decline. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 275 yuan to 33,620 yuan/ton, a 0.81% decline. The price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased by 0.30 yuan to 6.25 yuan/Ah, a 5.04% increase [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - 现货市场报价: On September 10, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,414 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,175 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,150 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,150 yuan/ton. The futures price of lithium carbonate dropped sharply, and the downstream material factories' enthusiasm for price - setting significantly increased. In September, the market shows a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, but the demand growth rate is faster, and it is expected that there will be a temporary supply shortage this month [6]. - 下游消费情况: According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, from August 1 - 31, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 1.079 million, a 5% year - on - year increase and a 9% month - on - month increase. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 55.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 7.535 million, a 25% year - on - year increase [7]. - 行业新闻: On September 9, Ningde Times' subsidiary held a meeting to discuss the restart of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine, aiming to restart production in November, but whether the goal can be achieved is uncertain. The settlement discount of ternary cathode materials is expected to be raised in September. The demand for ternary precursors is expected to continue to rise in September [8][9].