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毛戈平(01318):2025年中报点评:护肤增速快于彩妆,品牌高增同时经营质量优

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 670 million yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year. The adjusted profit reached 672 million yuan, with a growth of 32% and an adjusted profit margin of 26% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, the revenue from different product categories was as follows: makeup 1.42 billion yuan, skincare 1.09 billion yuan, fragrance 11 million yuan, and training schools 67 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +31%, +33%, no growth for fragrance, and -6% for training schools. Excluding training schools, total product sales grew by 32.7% [5]. Product Performance - Within the makeup category, the base makeup segment performed strongly, with retail sales of caviar cushion and light sensation powder exceeding 200 million yuan each. The skincare segment saw classic products like caviar masks achieving retail sales of over 600 million yuan (up 33% year-on-year) and black cream exceeding 200 million yuan. New high-end products are being introduced steadily [5]. Channel Performance - Online sales continued to grow significantly, with revenues of 1.3 billion yuan (up 39% year-on-year), while offline sales reached 1.22 billion yuan (up 27% year-on-year). The repurchase rates improved by 2.6 percentage points for online and 1.6 percentage points for offline channels [5]. Profitability - The net profit margin for H1 2025 reached 26%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. This was attributed to a 0.7 percentage point decline in gross margin, primarily due to lower margins in makeup and training schools, and a significant optimization in expense ratios [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a clear growth trend in the short to medium term, driven by a robust pipeline of mid-tier products, high elasticity in e-commerce channels, and continuous improvement in offline store efficiency. The long-term potential includes category expansion, collaboration with more high-end brands, and international market entry [5]. The projected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.25 billion, 1.57 billion, and 1.92 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35.9, 28.4, and 23.3 times [5].