南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply - The low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China's wet season is ending, and the growth rate of furnace - starting in Xinjiang is also slower than expected. The overall supply pressure is expected to gradually ease [4]. - Demand - The demand from the organic silicon industry has slowed, while the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy remains stable. The demand from the polysilicon sector is expected to increase steadily in the next two months [4]. - Market Outlook - If the supply - side production rate enters a downward channel and the downstream polysilicon demand improves, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point [4]. Polysilicon - Supply - The production plan in September is expected to increase month - on - month, exacerbating the supply - side surplus pressure. The increasing number of daily warehouse receipts also exerts pressure on the futures market [10]. - Demand - The production rhythm of silicon wafers and battery cells continues to slow, and the demand for polysilicon is restricted by factors such as lagging terminal installation demand and inventory digestion pressure [10]. - Market Outlook - If major enterprises in the industry reach effective integration agreements, it will fundamentally improve the supply - demand pattern and form long - term support for the market. Currently, investors are advised to be cautious [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8740 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 75 yuan (0.87%) and a weekly increase of 225 yuan (2.64%) [12]. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 275329 lots (44.20%) daily and 24186 lots (6.51%) weekly [12]. - The open interest of the main contract increased by 9706 lots (3.49%) daily and 10466 lots (3.77%) weekly [12]. Spot Data - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Tianjin remained unchanged, while the price of 553 in Xinjiang increased by 100 yuan/ton (1.14%) [20][21]. - The price of 421 in Yunnan increased by 100 yuan/ton (1.14%), and the price of industrial silicon powder and some downstream products also had price changes [21]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 50093 lots, an increase of 48 lots (1.23%) from the previous period [34]. - The inventory in some delivery warehouses remained stable, while the inventory in Tianjin delivery warehouse increased by 198 tons (0.92%) [34]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 53710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 825 yuan (1.56%) and a weekly increase of 1515 yuan (2.90%) [36]. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 133683 lots (32.45%) daily but increased by 10216 lots (3.81%) weekly [36]. - The open interest of the main contract decreased by 746 lots (0.54%) daily and 9624 lots (6.59%) weekly [36]. Spot Data - The prices of N - type polysilicon products such as N - type re - feeding materials and N - type dense materials had slight weekly increases [42]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also had different degrees of changes [42]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 2470 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 845 yuan (52.00%) and a weekly decrease of 1405 yuan (131.92%) [48]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 7690 lots, an increase of 320 lots (4.3%) [36].