Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-11 12:42Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea market showed a narrow adjustment with a pattern of strong - then - weak performance, with a weekly adjustment range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation remained weak. After the parade, there was a slight regional increase in industrial and compound fertilizer demand, but the overall impact was limited. The market is more concerned about China's supply volume in the Indian tender and whether it will cause concentrated cargo collection at ports. The upstream is facing increasing pressure to receive orders, and urea factories started to lower prices to receive orders over the weekend. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850 yuan/ton [4]. - The export of urea has been confirmed. The futures are expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern with stronger support at the bottom due to speculative pricing [5]. - Domestic policies are suppressing the market. The association requires factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on the spot market sentiment [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Urea | 1650 - 1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | Methanol | 2250 - 2500 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | Polypropylene | 6800 - 7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | Plastic | 6800 - 7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | [3] 3.2 Urea Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, short - sell urea futures (UR2601, sell, 25%, 1800 - 1950 yuan/ton) to lock in profits and cover production costs; buy put options (UR2601P1850, buy, 50%, 15 - 20) to prevent sharp price drops and sell call options (UR2601C1950, sell, 45 - 60) to reduce capital costs [3]. - Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy urea futures (UR2601, buy, 50%, 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton) to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell put options (UR2601P1650, sell, 75%, 20 - 25) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3].