Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-12 02:38Report Information - Report Title: Copper Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Analyst: Xiao Yufei [3] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core View - Copper prices rose in the overnight session on Wednesday due to the lower - than - expected US PPI data. Investors expect inflation data to further decline, which removes obstacles to the Fed's interest rate cuts and increases the probability of rate cuts, thus pushing up copper prices. The US inflation data on Thursday night met expectations, validating the PPI data. In the short term, with a tight supply side, copper prices face significant resistance at 79,000 yuan per ton, and the 20 - day moving average may provide support, with prices expected to stabilize above 80,000 yuan per ton [4] Content Summary by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 80,130 yuan per ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton. The current volatility is 7.44%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 3.5% [3] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot position, the strategy is to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan per ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2511C82000 when volatility is relatively stable [3] Raw Material Management - For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot position, the strategy is to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 7,8000 yuan per ton [3] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies; increased rate - cut expectations led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals; and the lower support level has been raised [5] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are unstable; global demand has decreased due to tariff policies; and the US copper tariff policy adjustment has led to an extremely high COMEX inventory [6] Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | Yuan/ton | 80,130 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 80,130 | 340 | 0.43% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 80,100 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 10,057 | 45 | 0.45% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.11 | - 0.02 | - 0.25% | [7] Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Market | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 80,175 | 430 | 0.54% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | Yuan/ton | 80,140 | 415 | 0.52% | | Guangdong Nanchu | Yuan/ton | 80,120 | 380 | 0.48% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 80,270 | 390 | 0.49% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 85 | 25 | 41.67% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium | Yuan/ton | 40 | 15 | 60% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium | Yuan/ton | 60 | 15 | 33.33% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 100 | 5 | 5.26% | [13] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,628.51 | - 60 | - 3.55% | | Reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,498.2 | - 0.6 | - 0.04% | | Price advantage (tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 130.31 | - 59.4 | - 31.31% | | Current refined - scrap spread (tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 6,320 | - 60 | - 0.94% | | Reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 6,239.51 | - 4.16 | - 0.07% | | Price advantage (tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 80.49 | - 55.84 | - 40.96% | [17] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 20,028 | 902 | 4.72% | | Total international copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 5,419 | 1,001 | 22.66% | | SHFE copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai | Tons | 1,530 | 0 | 0% | | Total bonded SHFE copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total tax - paid SHFE copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 20,028 | 902 | 4.72% | [21] London Metal Exchange (LME) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME copper inventory | Tons | 154,175 | - 875 | - 0.56% | | LME copper inventory in Europe | Tons | 22,675 | 0 | 0% | | LME copper inventory in Asia | Tons | 16,500 | - 115,875 | - 87.54% | | LME copper inventory in North America | Tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME copper registered warehouse receipts | Tons | 133,325 | 0 | 0% | | Total LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts | Tons | 20,850 | - 875 | - 4.03% | [23] COMEX | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX copper inventory | Tons | 309,834 | 7,090 | 2.34% | | Total COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts | Tons | 147,589 | - 3,239 | 1.09% | | Total COMEX copper cancelled warehouse receipts | Tons | 162,245 | - 458 | - 0.28% | [24] Copper Import Profit and Processing Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper import profit and loss | Yuan/ton | - 104.48 | - 109.58 | - 2148.63% | | Copper concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 40.5 | 0 | 0% | [25]