Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-12 02:38Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while in the short - term, gold and silver are consolidating at high levels. For London gold, the support level is around $3600, with strong support in the $3500 area, and the resistance level has moved up to $3700. For London silver, the short - term support is around $40.5, with strong support in the $39.5 - 40 area, and the upper target has moved up to the $44 - 45 area. The operation strategy is to buy on dips, and existing long positions can be reduced on rallies [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market fluctuated at high levels, with silver outperforming gold. The US inflation data met expectations, and the weekly initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, indicating cooling pressure in the job market. The contrast in monetary policies between Europe and the US pushed the US dollar index lower, which was beneficial for dollar - denominated precious metals. The high spot lease rate of silver reflected a tight supply in the silver spot market. Since the end of August, the strength of precious metals has been mainly driven by the increasing expectation of Fed easing and the significant decline in long - term US Treasury yields. As of the end, COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3673.4 per ounce, down 0.23%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $42.065 per ounce, up 1.12%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 830.78 yuan per gram, down 0.31%; SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9798 yuan per kilogram, up 0.28%. The US CPI inflation in August basically met expectations, with the core CPI up 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, and CPI up 2.9% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased to 263,000, a nearly four - year high. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, and President Lagarde's hawkish remarks weakened the expectation of ECB rate cuts [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of interest rate cuts within the year has slightly rebounded. Traders have priced in three rate cuts within the year, but the expectation of a 50 - basis - point cut in September has cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 93.9%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 6.1%. For October, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 7.6%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 86.8%, and a 75 - basis - point cut is 5.6%. For December, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 0.5%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 13.1%, a 75 - basis - point cut is 81.2%, and a 100 - basis - point cut is 5.2%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased slightly by 2.01 tons to 977.95 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings remained at 15,069.6 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 12 tons to 1240.2 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 35.3 tons to 1248.3 tons as of the week ending September 5 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Attention should be paid to the preliminary value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index tonight. This week marks the quiet period for Fed officials ahead of the September 18 Fed interest rate decision [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices: SHFE gold main contract was at 830.78 yuan per gram, down 0.32%; SGX gold TD was at 826.09 yuan per gram, down 0.44%; CME gold main contract was at $3673.4 per ounce, down 0.19%. SHFE silver main contract was at 9798 yuan per kilogram, up 0.02%; SGX silver TD was at 9772 yuan per kilogram, down 0.12%; CME silver main contract was at $42.065 per ounce, up 1%. The SHFE - TD gold spread was 4.69 yuan per gram, up 26.76%; the SHFE - TD silver spread was 26 yuan per kilogram, down 1300%. The CME gold - silver ratio was 87.3268, down 1.17% [6]. - Inventory and Position Data: SHFE gold inventory was 50,151 kilograms, up 9.14%; CME gold inventory was 1210.3089 tons, unchanged. SHFE gold position was 114,423 lots, down 4.19%; SPDR gold position was 977.95 tons, down 0.21%. SHFE silver inventory was 1240.187 tons, down 0.96%; CME silver inventory was 16,314.2027 tons, up 0.26%; SGX silver inventory was 1248.255 tons, down 2.75%. SHFE silver position was 203,343 lots, down 4.32%; SLV silver position was 15,069.602597 tons, down 0.45% [15][17]. 3.5 Other Market Data - Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Overview: The US dollar index was at 97.5392, down 0.29%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was at 7.1152, down 0.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 46,108 points, up 1.36%. WTI crude oil spot was at $62.37 per barrel, down 2.04%. LmeS copper 03 was at $10,057 per ton, up 0.45%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.01%, down 0.74%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was at 1.67%, down 1.18%; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was at 0.49%, down 2% [22].