Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-12 02:32Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the tin industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Affected by the lower - than - expected US PPI data, tin prices rose slightly on Thursday, with no significant change in its fundamentals. CPI data met expectations, echoing PPI. In the short term, factors influencing tin price trends are not obvious, and technical analysis can be used for judgment. The price level of 270,000 yuan per ton provides some support and can be used as a reference price for the next few trading days [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Volatility and Forecast - The latest closing price of tin is 271,260 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 12.82%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 21.4% [3]. 3.2 Risk Management Suggestions - Inventory Management: For high product inventories and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of the SHFE tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call option when volatility is appropriate [3]. - Raw Material Management: For low raw material inventories and concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the SHFE tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put option when volatility is appropriate [3]. 3.3 Market Factors - Likely Positive Factors: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, and lower - than - expected resumption of production in Myanmar [8]. - Likely Negative Factors: Fluctuating tariff policies, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector shifting from expansion to contraction [6]. 3.4 Futures Market Data - SHFE Tin Futures: The latest prices of SHFE tin main, SHFE tin consecutive - one, and SHFE tin consecutive - three are all 271,260 yuan/ton, 271,260 yuan/ton, and 271,460 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The LME tin 3M price is 34,700 dollars/ton, up 65 dollars or 0.19%. The SHFE - LME ratio is 7.94, up 0.07 or 0.89% [7]. 3.5 Spot Market Data - Various tin - related spot prices, including Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, tin concentrates, and solder bars, all showed weekly declines, with decreases ranging from 0.36% to 0.57% [12]. 3.6 Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 16,422.39 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 7.68%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remained unchanged [15]. 3.7 Inventory Data - SHFE tin warehouse receipts increased by 0.29% to 7,504 tons, with Guangdong up 0.11% to 5,245 tons and Shanghai up 1.13% to 1,438 tons. LME tin inventory increased by 2.34% to 2,410 tons [17].