KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Dongguan Securities·2025-09-12 06:59Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the liquor sector continues to clear inventory, while consumer goods are favored in the thriving segments. The high-end liquor brand Kweichow Moutai shows resilient growth, while other brands like Shui Jing Fang and Yanghe have experienced declines due to ongoing pressure in consumption scenarios [8][51] - The report suggests focusing on high-certainty high-end liquor stocks such as Kweichow Moutai (600519) and other mid-range and regional liquor brands like Shanxi Fenjiu (600809), Jiu Gui Jiu (000799), and Gu Qing Gong Jiu (000596) [8][51] - In the consumer goods sector, performance varies across sub-segments, with some showing improvement in Q2. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring demand and cost indicators in the beer sector, as well as consumption recovery and product structure optimization in the seasoning sector [8][51] Summary by Sections Market Review - From August 29 to September 11, 2025, the SW food and beverage industry index rose by 3.54%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 1.65 percentage points [15] - The liquor sector saw the highest increase at 4.52%, while other liquor categories experienced a decline of 0.89% [17] - Approximately 71% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during this period, with notable gainers including Huanle Jia (+23.38%) and Gai Shi Food (+14.13%) [19] Industry Important Data Tracking - The liquor sector's pricing trends show a decrease in the prices of Feitian and Pu Wu, while Guojiao 1573 remains stable. As of September 11, 2025, the price for Feitian is 1785 RMB/bottle, down 25 RMB from August 28 [26] - In the seasoning sector, the price of soybean and white sugar has decreased, while glass prices have increased. As of September 11, 2025, the price of white sugar is 5890 RMB/ton, down 20 RMB from August 28 [29] - The average wholesale price of pork is 19.93 RMB/kg, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [41] Industry News - The report notes that from January to July 2025, the cumulative export value of liquor products reached 68.50 billion RMB, with traditional liquor accounting for a significant portion [45] - The China Liquor Market Prosperity Index for the first half of 2025 was reported at 47.14, indicating a weak economic environment [46] Company Announcements - Kweichow Moutai reported a stable performance in the first half of 2025, while other companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Gu Qing Gong Jiu showed varying results in their financial reports [49][50]