山西汾酒（600809）：业绩符合预期，省外占比提升

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a target price of 237.10 CNY for the next six months [4][7]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 23.964 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5.35%, and a net profit of 8.505 billion CNY, up 1.13% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company maintains a strong brand presence and continues to innovate in production techniques, which has allowed it to sustain performance despite industry pressures [2][3]. - The company is experiencing an increase in revenue contribution from outside its home province, indicating successful market expansion [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company generated revenue of 233.9 billion CNY from liquor sales, a 5.75% increase, while other liquor categories saw a decline of 10.55% [2]. - The company's gross margin for Q2 2025 was 71.87%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 24.96%, down 4.03 percentage points [3]. - The company expects revenue growth rates of -1.2%, 6.0%, and 9.6% for 2025 to 2027, respectively, with net profit growth rates of -1.0%, 6.2%, and 9.6% [4][11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has adopted a marketing model that integrates e-commerce and new retail strategies, leading to faster growth in key markets such as the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta [2]. - The number of distributors in both domestic and provincial markets has been adjusted, with a slight decrease in the number of distributors in the home province and a more significant reduction in the number of distributors for other liquor categories [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a comparison of valuation metrics with peer companies, indicating an average P/E ratio of 23.89x for the company [4][10]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately 253.63 billion CNY, with a share price of 207.90 CNY as of September 11, 2025 [7]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that as the demand in the liquor industry gradually recovers, the company's performance is expected to enter a new growth phase [3].