Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-12 13:22Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the log price trend is not obvious. Spot price cuts and the decline in foreign quotes have been fully factored in. If the 11 - contract follows the trend of the 09 - contract with low buyer acceptance for delivery, there is still room for price decline, but the current time is not right. Spot prices remained stable this week, with no significant supply - demand contradictions, and prices are slowly declining with low volatility, but the downside space is also limited. Next week, inventory reduction is expected to continue [3]. - The near - end price does not offer delivery profit. The futures price is lower than all specification warehouse - receipt costs but has not reached the price at which buyers are willing to take delivery. The long - short contradiction is not obvious, and the price will continue to fluctuate in the range of 780 - 820 until a new variable emerges [4]. - The price of the 01 - contract cannot be accurately valued at present. Overseas shipping volume, CFR quotes, the trading situation of the 11 - contract, and subsequent delivery volume are all unknown. The monthly spread structure is at a reasonable level, and the trading volume of the 01 - contract is low, so it is not considered for now [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradiction - The core contradiction affecting log price trends is not evident. Spot price drops and foreign quote decreases have been priced in. If the 11 - contract replicates the 09 - contract's pattern with low buyer delivery willingness, prices may fall further, but the current timing is inappropriate. Spot prices were stable this week, with no significant supply - demand imbalances. Prices are slowly declining with low volatility, and the bottom space is limited. Next week, inventory is expected to continue to decrease [3]. - Near - end trading logic: There is no delivery profit in the near - end price. The futures price is below all specification warehouse - receipt costs but has not reached the buyer's acceptance price. The long - short conflict is not clear, and the price will move within the 780 - 820 range until new factors emerge [4]. - Distant - end trading expectation: The 01 - contract price cannot be accurately estimated. Overseas shipping volume, CFR quotes, the trading status of the 11 - contract, and subsequent delivery volume are unknown. The monthly spread structure is reasonable, and the 01 - contract has low trading volume, so it is not considered [5]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: The market is in a downward trend. After a rebound on reduced positions, it is in low - volatility oscillation, moving towards the previous low. - Strategy suggestions: Mainly short at high prices; use the interval grid strategy with 805 as the central price, a grid interval of 5 - 10, and an interval range of 790 - 820. Set the short position twice the long position, and pay attention to risk control. If the grid is broken and exceeds the risk - control range, stop losses promptly [8]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short log futures to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. The hedging tool is lg2511, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry recommendation between 820 - 830 [11]. - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, it is recommended to buy log futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging tool is lg2511, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry recommendation between 780 - 800 [11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - Bullish information: Inventory is seasonally declining and at a historical low [11]. - Bearish information: Outbound volume is weak; foreign quotes have dropped by $2; there is uncertainty about further spot price cuts [12][14]. - Spot transaction information: The prices of various log specifications in different ports remained stable this week, with varying degrees of year - on - year decline [12][15]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - After a rebound on reduced positions on Monday, the futures market mainly oscillated downward. There was a slight increase in positions and a price drop on Friday. With no new variables, trading was characterized by low volatility this week, and capital mainly flowed out [16]. 3.2 Basis and Monthly Spread Structure - The monthly spread structure maintains a C - structure. The price decline of the delivery - month contract is more obvious, and there are few changes in the structure except for the delivery - month contract [19]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Valuation - The warehouse - receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 822, and in Shandong, it is around 817. The price at which buyers are willing to take delivery, calculated at a 20 - point discount on the spot price, is around 782. The current price is within a reasonable range [24]. 4.2 Import Profit - In Shandong, imports of 3.9/5.9 - meter medium - grade A logs continue to incur losses, and the losses deepen after the spot price drop. In the Yangtze River Delta region, the profit of 6 - meter medium - grade A logs is also negative but better than in Shandong [25]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection - From September 13th to 22nd, 9 ships are expected to arrive (- 2), with a total cargo volume of 328,000 cubic meters (- 90,000). - Based on the current daily outbound volume, significant inventory reduction is expected next week, continuing the seasonal inventory - reduction trend. On the demand side, the daily outbound volume is 61,200 cubic meters (- 800), showing a slight weakening trend. Whether the demand weakening will continue needs further observation. The reduction of national subsidies may reduce support for pallets, and the continuous decline of the second - hand housing market since July is not a positive sign for the furniture market. The real - estate sector remains weak [32]. - On the supply side, with the decline in CFR quotes, the possibility of continuous high shipping volume is low. Supply and demand are expected to remain in a weak balance [33].