Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-12 13:24Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European line) futures continued to fluctuate downward. As of the close, all contract prices declined to varying degrees. The EC2510 contract saw a reduction in long positions by 948 lots to 26,451 lots and a reduction in short positions by 1,167 lots to 27,579 lots, with trading volume decreasing by 5,185 lots to 30,843 lots (bilateral). The mainstream shipping companies continued to lower freight rates during the current off - season, and the short - term futures prices are likely to maintain a relatively downward trend. It is recommended to adopt a quick - in - quick - out strategy, while also being cautious of potential rebounds after the futures prices reach short - term lows [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about freight rate drops, with a long spot exposure, to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures based on the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling range of 1300 - 1400 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book cabins according to order situations, with a short spot exposure, to prevent freight rate increases and rising transportation costs, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying range of 1000 - 1100 [2]. Core Contradictions - The container shipping index (European line) futures continued to decline. The reduction in long and short positions in the EC2510 contract and the decrease in trading volume, along with the continuous reduction of freight rate quotes by shipping companies, indicate that short - term futures prices are likely to remain in a downward trend. A quick - in - quick - out trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to potential rebounds [3]. Bullish Interpretations - MSC, Maersk, and HMM have successively announced their Golden Week blank sailing plans [4]. Bearish Interpretations - ONE followed up by lowering the European line quotes for late September in the online cabin - booking quotes of shipping companies. - The attack on Qatar by Israel has led to a tense situation in the region, which may have an impact on the container shipping market [5]. EC Basis and Price Information - The basis of EC contracts shows different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the basis of EC2510 was 408.86 points, with a daily increase of 46.20 points and a weekly increase of 157.70 points [5]. - The closing prices of EC contracts also declined to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of EC2510 was 1157.6 points, with a daily decline of 5.02% and a weekly decline of 7.45% [6]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On September 22, Maersk's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased by $5 to $997, and the 40GP total quote increased by $10 to $1669 compared to the previous period. - In mid - to - late September, ONE's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route decreased by $190 to $1354, and the 40GP total quote decreased by $300 to $1643 compared to the previous period [8]. Global Freight Rate Indexes - SCFIS European route dropped by 11.68% to 1566.46 points; SCFIS US - West route dropped by 3.30% to 980.48 points. - SCFI European route decreased by 12.24% to $1154 per TEU; SCFI US - West route increased by 8.27% to $2370 per FEU [9]. Global Port Waiting Times - The waiting times at ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Yantian increased on September 11 compared to the previous day, while the waiting times at ports such as Jakarta, Long Beach, and Savannah decreased [16]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Numbers in Suez Canal - The average speeds of 8000 + and 3000 + container ships increased slightly on September 11 compared to the previous day, while the average speed of 1000 + container ships decreased slightly. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage increased from 8 to 21 [25].