GCL TECH(HK:03800) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-09-12 13:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 was negatively impacted by low industry prices, but a better price trend is expected in the second half, leading to a significant recovery in performance [2] - The company is projected to have a net profit of -2.057 billion RMB in 2025, with an EPS of -0.07 RMB per share, and a target price of 1.61 HKD based on a 1.2x PB for 2025 [10][11] - The company has a competitive advantage in granular silicon technology, which is expected to improve its market position as industry prices recover [10] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 33.7 billion RMB, with a decline of 6.2% year-on-year. The revenue for 2024 is expected to drop significantly by 55% to 15.098 billion RMB, followed by a recovery in 2025 with a projected revenue of 12.106 billion RMB [4] - Gross profit is expected to be 11.692 billion RMB in 2023, but will turn negative in 2024 at -2.510 billion RMB, with a gradual recovery to 3.14 million RMB in 2025 [4] - The net profit is forecasted to be 2.510 billion RMB in 2023, declining to -4.750 billion RMB in 2024, and then improving to -2.057 billion RMB in 2025 [4] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The average selling price of granular silicon has shown a significant increase, with prices rising from 35.71 RMB/kg in Q1 2025 to 32.93 RMB/kg in Q2 2025, and further to 4.8 million RMB/ton by September 2025, marking a 43% increase [10] - The company’s cash costs for granular silicon have decreased, indicating improved efficiency and competitiveness in the market [10] - The report highlights the importance of government policies aimed at stabilizing the solar industry and preventing price undercutting, which is expected to support price recovery [10]