Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-12 13:36Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of asphalt is increasing, but the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and persistent funding shortages, resulting in the short - term peak season not exceeding expectations. The inventory structure has improved with factory and social inventories declining. The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns about US military action against Venezuela. In the short - term, southern rainfall will continue to be high, and the cost of crude oil is decreasing as OPEC increases production. In the medium - to - long - term, demand will pick up as construction conditions improve in autumn, and there may be only one last chance for asphalt futures to rise this year. The South China region remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions. After the short - term stabilization of crude oil, a long - position allocation can be attempted [3]. 3. Other Key Points 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.26% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 15.93% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and cover production costs; they can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular inventory hoping to purchase based on orders, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs; they can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.3 Price and Basis Data - Spot Prices: On September 12, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3530 yuan/ton, 3640 yuan/ton, 3650 yuan/ton, and 3500 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were - 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - Basis: The basis of Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China for the 12 - contract on September 12, 2025, had daily changes of 17 yuan/ton, 27 yuan/ton, 27 yuan/ton, and 27 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - Crack Spread: The crack spread of Shandong spot to Brent crude oil was 142.4603 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of - 1.7328 yuan/barrel; the crack spread of the futures main contract to Brent was 114.3876 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of - 16.4623 yuan/barrel [8]. 3.4 Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: Low pressure on asphalt factory warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low operating rates with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of capacity reduction [7]. - Negative Factors: An increase in the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in the short - term, the drag on demand from the southern rainy season, a slowdown in social inventory destocking and weakening basis, and the potential increase in operating rates due to consumption tax reform in Shandong [7][8].