LZLJ(SZ:000568) Guoxin Securities·2025-09-12 01:57Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luzhou Laojiao is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][10][6] Core Viewpoints - The company held its core distributor meeting on September 8, 2025, focusing on "Comprehensive Transformation and Win-Win with Customers," analyzing opportunities and challenges in the liquor industry and future consumption trends [2][3] - The company has initiated a digital transformation since 2022, with improvements in management mechanisms and a shift in channel strategies to enhance consumer engagement and inventory management [4][5] - The pricing of the flagship product, Guojiao 1573, remains stable, and the company is expected to leverage seasonal sales opportunities during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [3][5] - The company has a well-rounded product portfolio across various price points, with significant growth potential for the 38-degree Guojiao 1573, which is expected to benefit from the "light business" consumption trend [9][10] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Luzhou Laojiao are estimated at CNY 29.54 billion, CNY 30.36 billion, and CNY 33.42 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.3%, +2.8%, and +10.1% [3][10] - Expected net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at CNY 12.37 billion, CNY 13.01 billion, and CNY 14.65 billion for the same years, with year-on-year changes of -8.2%, +5.2%, and +12.6% [3][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 16.6x for 2025 and 15.8x for 2026 [3][10] Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on digital management to enhance channel performance and distributor confidence, with a flexible adjustment of assessment indicators to support new consumer groups [4][5] - The company maintains stable pricing for Guojiao 1573 while expanding its market share through targeted channel strategies and consumer engagement [5][9] - The 38-degree Guojiao 1573 is positioned well in the market, with a projected revenue of approximately CNY 10 billion in 2024, supported by strong brand recognition and product quality [9][10]