煤焦周度观点-20250914

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The valuation has fully priced in the supply recovery, and the market will fluctuate repeatedly [3]. - After the parade, the upstream production in China quickly recovered, and the customs clearance volume at the Mongolian coal ports of Ganqimaodu and Ceke remained at a high level, resulting in a relatively large month - on - month increase in overall supply [5]. - The market may have fully priced in the interest - rate cut expectations, and the risk appetite in domestic and international capital markets remains relatively strong, providing some macro - level support for commodity valuations [5]. - Although the actual supply - demand situation has eased after the parade, the previous strong consensus has been fully reflected in the market. Currently, the market still has strong support for future raw material demand expectations, and combined with the rapidly recovering blast furnace hot metal production, the short - term raw material valuation may have some support [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes - Supply: FW raw coal production was 861.07 million tons (+43.76 million tons), FW clean coal production was 442.45 million tons (+23.31 million tons); independent coking plants' daily average production was 66.76 million tons (+2.44 million tons), and steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average production was 46.6 million tons (+0.88 million tons) [7]. - Demand: Hot metal production was 240.55 million tons (+11.71 million tons) [7]. - Inventory: MS total coal inventory decreased by 58.1 million tons, independent coking plants' coal inventory decreased by 36.5 million tons, mine raw coal inventory decreased by 1.6 million tons, mine clean coal inventory decreased by 13.6 million tons, steel mill coking inventory decreased by 2.0 million tons, and port coal inventory decreased by 4.4 million tons, while FW port inventory increased by 23.3 million tons; MS total coke inventory increased by 11.0 million tons, independent coking plants' coke inventory increased by 1.3 million tons, steel mill inventory increased by 9.6 million tons, and port coke inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [7]. - Profit: The profit of commercial coal was 404 yuan/ton (-12 yuan/ton), and the average profit of coking enterprises was 35 yuan/ton (-29 yuan/ton) [7]. - Warehouse Receipt: The warehouse receipt price of Meng 5 coal in Tangshan was 1099 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke was 1525 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - Supply - Weekly: The 523 - sample mine raw coal production and clean coal production showed certain trends, and the customs clearance volume at Mongolian coal ports such as Ganqimaodu, Manzhouli, and Ceke also had different levels of performance [10][12][17]. - Monthly: The production of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal had different trends in different months from 2019 - 2025 [15]. - Inventory - Pit - mouth: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample coal mines increased by 5.70 million tons week - on - week to 199.77 million tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 1.45 million tons week - on - week to 124.96 million tons [27]. - Port: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 271.11 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.38 million tons [29]. - Coking Plant: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking plants were provided, including overall and regional data [32][34]. - Steel Mill: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and their coking plants were provided, including overall and regional data [37]. 3.3 Coke Fundamental Data - Supply - Capacity Utilization - Coking Plant: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises, including different - scale plants and those in different regions, were presented [40]. - Steel Mill: The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants was provided [42]. - Output - Coking Plant: The daily average coke output of 230 independent coking plants and all - sample independent coking enterprises was presented [44]. - Steel Mill: The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants was provided [46]. - Inventory - Coking Plant: The inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 230 independent coking plants was presented [48]. - Steel Mill: The inventory, average available days, and regional inventory data of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants were provided [49][51]. - All - sample Aggregation: The total coke inventory and supply - demand difference were presented [54][56]. 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - Futures - Coking Coal Futures: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2509 and 2601 futures contracts from September 5 - 12, 2025 were provided [63]. - Coke Futures: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2509 and 2601 futures contracts from September 5 - 12, 2025 were provided [66]. - Coal and Coke Monthly Spread: The monthly spreads of JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 were presented [69]. - Spot - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke, such as the car - loading prices of different grades of coking coal in different regions and the prices of quasi - first - grade and second - grade coke, were provided [72]. - Basis - The basis showed narrow - range fluctuations, and the futures market has been relatively firm recently, preventing the basis from further breaking through the previous high [75]. The basis data of coking coal 2601 and coke 2601 were presented [76].