供应风险弱化，锂价回吐溢价

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices declined under pressure. The market will return to the fundamental logic after the supply disturbances subside. The resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine will significantly affect the timing of the inventory inflection point. The resumption expectation has put pressure on the market, but the price decline during the peak season is limited before the actual resumption. After the demand inflection point, prices may enter a downward channel again under the year - end inventory pressure. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy, be cautious in short - term short - chasing, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][2][14][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Supply Risk Weakens, Lithium Prices Give Back Premiums - From September 8th to 12th, lithium salt prices fell. LC2509 and LC2511 closed down 3.7% and 4.2% respectively to 71,200 yuan/ton. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices dropped 3.1% and 3.2% to 72,500 and 70,200 yuan/ton. SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices also declined. The price premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate widened by 0.1 million yuan to 0.18 million yuan/ton. High prices have activated some lithium ore inventories hoarded by traders at the beginning of the year, and the net import of the Chinese market has increased marginally. The demand is in the seasonal peak season, and it is expected that the monthly inventory will decrease by 3,000 tons from September to October, and then enter the inventory accumulation stage [1][2][11][14] 3.2 Week - long Industry News Review - Brazil's Lithium Export Decline in August: Brazilian lithium exports in August decreased by more than one - third year - on - year. The export of spodumene was 20,000 tons, a 35.5% year - on - year decline and nearly a 43% decline from July [16] - Codelco and SQM to Reach a Joint Lithium Mining Agreement: Chilean state - owned copper miner Codelco and the world's second - largest lithium producer SQM are about to finalize a partnership to mine lithium from the Atacama salt flats. The agreement is expected to be reached in a few weeks but needs antitrust approval [16] - China's Battery Exports in August: In August, China's total exports of power and other batteries were 22.6GWh, a 23.9% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative exports reached 173.1GWh, a 48.5% year - on - year increase [17] - Ningde Times' Meeting on Resuming Jianxiaowo Lithium Mine Production: Ningde Times' subsidiary held a meeting to make decisions on resuming production, including recalling employees, preparing production equipment, ensuring safety, and achieving full - load production after resumption [17][18] 3.3 Key High - frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Decline - The spot average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased from 871 US dollars/ton to 842 US dollars/ton, a 3.3% decline [12] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: Weak Oscillation in the Market - The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices declined. The battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices decreased by 3.1% and 3.2% respectively. The prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide also dropped [11][12] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Decline - The spot average prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed slight changes, with some rising and some falling [12] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Installation Proportion of Lithium Iron Phosphate in August Further Increased - Although specific data on the increase in the installation proportion of lithium iron phosphate are not provided in the text, it is emphasized that the installation proportion has further increased [42]