置换债是否会在Q4提前发行、有何影响？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank maintains a relatively loose stance within the existing framework, as indicated by the OMO's resumption of large - scale operations after DR001 rose above 1.4%, the increase in banks' rigid net lending to over 4 trillion yuan, and the 300 - billion - yuan over - renewal of the 6 - month outright reverse repurchase [3][19]. - There is no need to over - worry about the so - called "deposit relocation" caused by the rise of the A - share market. The increase in M1 in August was affected by the base effect, and the reason for the increase in non - bank deposits is difficult to determine from the data [21]. - The statement of "advancing the issuance of part of the new local government debt quota for 2026 and using debt - resolution quotas earlier" does not necessarily mean that the 2 - trillion - yuan replacement bonds in 2026 will be issued ahead of schedule in Q4 [3][40]. - Without new quotas, the average monthly net financing scale of government bonds in Q4 is estimated to be about 633.5 billion yuan, lower than the average of the first three quarters. Unless there is a significant decline in fiscal deposits in September, the early issuance of Q4 replacement bonds is not the baseline expectation. Even if they are issued early, the impact on liquidity is controllable [4][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Money Market 3.1.1 This Week's Fundamentals Review - The central bank's OMO had a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan this week, and announced a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation next Monday, with a monthly net injection of 300 billion yuan. Affected by government bond payments and the previous OMO net withdrawal, funds tightened in the first half of the week, with DR001 rising to 1.43%. After Wednesday, as the central bank's reverse repurchase shifted to net injection, the funds loosened marginally, and DR001 fell back below 1.4% [3][7]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased from the high level in the second half of last week, but the average daily trading volume increased by 1.8 trillion yuan to 73.9 trillion yuan. The overall scale of pledged repurchase decreased in the first half of the week and then increased in the second half, still slightly lower than last Friday. In terms of institutions, the net lending of large - scale banks decreased continuously in the first half of the week and recovered after Thursday, the net lending of city - commercial banks fluctuated slightly, and the net lending of joint - stock banks increased. The overall rigid net lending of banks decreased in the first half of the week and then fluctuated and recovered in the second half, rising back above 4 trillion yuan. The non - bank rigid lending increased, mainly due to the large increase in money - market fund lending, while the lending of wealth - management products decreased slightly. The non - bank rigid borrowing decreased, mainly due to the decrease in fund borrowing, while the borrowing of insurance and other products increased. The fund gap index first rose and then fell, rising to - 318 billion on Wednesday and then falling to - 539.9 billion on Friday, still higher than - 621.3 billion last Friday [3][17]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Fund Outlook - The estimated scale of treasury bond payments next week is 392 billion yuan. As of this week, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in 2025 is 635.5 billion yuan, new special bonds is 3.4138 trillion yuan, ordinary refinancing bonds is 2.0641 trillion yuan, and special refinancing bonds is 1.9629 trillion yuan. The issuance scale of local bonds in 10 regions such as Yunnan, Shandong, and Xinjiang next week is 188.5 billion yuan, including 20.7 billion yuan of new general bonds, 97.8 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 70 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, with an actual payment scale of 190.2 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds will rise from 344.2 billion yuan this week to 402.5 billion yuan [22]. - Next week, funds will face multiple disturbing factors, with greater pressure in the first half of the week. However, the funds injected through outright repurchase will provide some hedging. Considering that the central bank's relatively loose stance within the existing framework remains unchanged, the probability of significant fluctuations in subsequent fund prices is relatively limited, and DR001 may not remain above 1.4% [4]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - This week, the 1 - year Shibor rate rose 0.7 BP to 1.67%, and the secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit rose 0.5 BP to 1.67%. The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, but the maturity scale increased more, resulting in a net repayment of 424.1 billion yuan. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city - commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were - 135.6 billion yuan, - 98.3 billion yuan, - 159.8 billion yuan, and - 23.6 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit rose to 15%, and the issuance proportion of 3 - month certificates of deposit was the highest at 34%. Next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit is about 894.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 315.7 billion yuan compared with this week [4][45][49]. - The issuance success rates of certificates of deposit of various banks decreased compared with last week. Except for the relatively low issuance success rate of state - owned banks, the others were around the average level in recent years. The issuance spread between 1 - year certificates of deposit of city - commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened [50]. - This week, the relative supply - demand strength index of certificates of deposit fluctuated and increased. The willingness of money - market funds to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit significantly increased after Thursday, the overall demand of wealth - management products for certificates of deposit increased slightly, the demand of non - money funds and other products for certificates of deposit decreased in the middle of the week and then recovered on Friday, and joint - stock banks continuously reduced their holdings after Tuesday. The supply - demand index of certificates of deposit continuously increased after Monday, rising to 36.4% on Friday, a 4.8 - percentage - point increase compared with September 5. In terms of different maturities, the supply - demand indexes of 1 - month and 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased, while those of 3 - month, 6 - month, and 9 - month varieties increased [59]. 3.3 Bill Market This week, bill rates showed a divergent trend. The 3 - month national bill rate decreased by 3 BP to 1.15% month - on - month, while the 6 - month national bill rate increased by 6 BP to 0.79% [64]. 3.4 Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - This week, the bond market performed weakly, the yield curve steepened and rose, and the spread of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds widened [66]. - Large - scale banks' willingness to increase their bond holdings increased significantly, mainly showing an inclination to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit and long - term treasury bonds, and a significant increase in the willingness to increase their holdings of medium - and short - term treasury bonds and long - term policy - bank bonds, but an inclination to reduce their holdings of ultra - long - term treasury bonds and 5 - 7 - year policy - bank bonds. Trading - oriented institutions shifted to a tendency to reduce their bond holdings. Among them, fund companies tended to reduce their holdings, securities companies' willingness to reduce their holdings increased, other products' willingness to increase their holdings decreased, and other institutions' willingness to increase their holdings increased slightly. All allocation - oriented institutions' willingness to increase their bond holdings increased significantly [66].