去产能预期尤在，锂价震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the market was centered around the resumption of Ningde's lithium mines, and prices stabilized at the previous low level. The market's initial reaction to the news of Ningde's potential mine resumption was a jump - gap lower opening, but after further verification, prices stabilized. The previous low prices may indicate that after the resource - disturbance logic ends, anti - involution could be the next topic in the long - short game [3]. - The fundamental situation remains bearish, but the risk of resource disturbances is less than that of involution governance policies, and lithium prices will fluctuate. The expected resource disturbances in Jiangxi are likely to be limited, while more detailed involution governance policies may be implemented in September. New energy vehicle sales are weakening both year - on - year and month - on - month, and fiscal subsidies mainly support the power terminal without significantly boosting it. The subsidy funds may flow more to service - oriented industries. The energy storage industry remains hot, with improved profits and positive order trends. Supply may decline slightly due to weakening prices, but the supply elasticity during the decline is relatively small, and the marginal variables in the fundamentals are limited [3][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Indicator | 2025/9/12 | 2025/9/5 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%) | 138 | 144 | - 6.50 | - 4.51% | USD/ton | | Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 821 | 856 | - 35.00 | - 4.09% | USD/ton | | Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 821 | 856 | - 35 | - 4.09% | CNY/ton | | Spot exchange rate: USD/CNY | 7.122 | 7.138 | - 0.02 | - 0.22% | / | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 7.12 | 7.43 | - 0.31 | - 4.17% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 7.07 | 7.30 | - 0.23 | - 3.15% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Lithium carbonate main contract price | 7.12 | 7.39 | - 0.27 | - 3.65% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse - grained) | 7.40 | 7.58 | - 0.18 | - 2.37% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine - grained) | 7.90 | 8.05 | - 0.15 | - 1.86% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Total lithium carbonate inventory | 91541 | 93844 | - 2303 | - 2.45% | ton | | Lithium iron phosphate price | 3.38 | 3.40 | - 0.02 | - 0.59% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Lithium cobalt oxide price | 21.50 | 21.50 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Ternary material price: 811 | 14.50 | 14.55 | - 0.05 | - 0.34% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Ternary material price: 622 | 12.45 | 12.65 | - 0.20 | - 1.58% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook 3.2.1 Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulatory and delivery: As of September 12, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 38,625 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 70,800 CNY/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2511 was 309,400 lots [7]. - Supply side: As of September 12, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 21,000 tons, an increase of 250 tons from the previous period. Vulcan Energy received approval to build a lithium salt project in the Hoechst Industrial Park, with a planned first - phase capacity of about 24,000 tons and expansion expectations in the second phase [7]. - Lithium salt import: In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 13,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7%. Imports from Chile were about 8,584 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.6%, accounting for about 62.2%. Imports from Argentina were 3,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.5%, accounting for about 28.6%. Chile's lithium carbonate exports in July were about 20,900 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 4%/43%. Exports to China were about 13,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 33%, accounting for about 65.07% of Chile's total exports [7]. - Lithium ore import: In July, the total import of lithium ore was about 750,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. Imports from Australia were 427,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.2%, accounting for about 56.88%; imports from Zimbabwe were about 64,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.2%, accounting for about 8.5%; imports from South Africa were about 106,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, accounting for 14.1%; imports from Nigeria were about 116,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47.3%. The significant increase in lithium spodumene concentrate imports in July was mainly due to the higher relative economic efficiency of spodumene ore after the sharp rise in mica ore prices [8][9]. - Demand side: - Downstream cathode materials: As of September 12, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 78,307 tons, the operating rate was 68.9%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 49,550 tons, an increase of 350 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 17,860 tons, the operating rate was 46.76%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 12,875 tons, a decrease of 40 tons from the previous period. The price of ternary materials slightly increased, while the price of lithium iron phosphate decreased. The demand for cathode materials is mainly driven by energy storage [10]. - New energy vehicles: From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 181,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 3% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 59.6%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 7.752 million units, a year - on - year increase of 25%. The growth rate of new - energy vehicle consumption weakened both year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to the high sales base in August 2025 and the subsidy policy focusing on high - end models [11]. - Inventory: As of August 29, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 100,834 tons, a decrease of about 5,221 tons from the previous period. Factory inventory was 25,165 tons, a decrease of about 590 tons from the previous period; market inventory was 75,669 tons, a decrease of about 4,631 tons from the previous period. Exchange inventory was 29,887 tons, an increase of 4,897 tons from the previous week [12][13]. 3.2.2 This Week's Outlook The expectation of capacity reduction still exists, and lithium prices will fluctuate. The fundamental bearish pattern remains unchanged, with the risk of resource disturbances being less than that of involution governance policies [14]. 3.3 Industry News - KoBold Metals obtained 7 exploration licenses for lithium and other minerals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [15]. - The "Dobra" lithium mine project, which may be the first project of the US - Ukraine joint investment fund, is expected to emerge. Ukraine has launched a public tender for the mining rights of the lithium deposit in Kirovohrad Oblast [15]. - Jiangxi Yongxing's supporting mining right obtained a three - year ceramic clay safety production license, with an annual mining scale of 3 million tons. The risk of suspension of production in Jiangxi's lithium mining sector remains, and further attention should be paid to enterprise dynamics [15]. - Galan Lithium received an investment of 20 million Australian dollars and is expected to start production in early 2026. The first - phase capacity of the Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project is 4,000 tons of LCE per year [15]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the price and production trends of lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, etc., as well as the import and supply structure of lithium carbonate [17][19][21][24][26][27][28].