盐湖股份（000792）：业绩基本符合预期，钾肥需求支撑景气上行，碳酸锂Q2逐步触底

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 6.781 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.515 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.69% [6] - Domestic demand for potassium fertilizer is supporting a high level of market activity, while the lithium carbonate market is expected to recover from its low point [6] - The company is actively pursuing exploration projects for potassium and lithium resources in various regions, including Southeast Asia and Africa [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 17.808 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.7% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.123 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 31.3% [2] - Earnings per share are expected to be 1.16 yuan in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 18 [2] Market Data - As of September 12, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 20.26 yuan, with a market capitalization of 107.207 billion yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 2.7 [3] - The average price of potassium fertilizer in Q2 2025 was approximately 2,994 yuan per ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.65% [6] Production and Sales - In the first half of 2025, the company produced and sold 1.9898 million tons and 1.7779 million tons of potassium fertilizer, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 11.8% and 20.5% [6] - For lithium carbonate, production and sales in the first half of 2025 were 20,000 tons and 20,600 tons, respectively, with significant growth in Q2 [6]