通威股份（600438）：25Q2毛利率回正，下半年盈利有望持续改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 40.509 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -4.955 billion yuan, down 58.35% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 24.575 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%, with a net profit of -2.363 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.85% year-on-year. The gross margin turned positive in Q2 2025, indicating potential for continued improvement in profitability in the second half of the year [1][3] - The company has maintained a leading position in domestic distributed shipments and is making progress in overseas markets, achieving significant sales growth in regions such as Poland and Romania [3][4] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a high proportion of N-type silicon shipments and leading indicators in battery production efficiency [2][4] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to be 139.104 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of -2.33%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 13.574 billion yuan, with a significant decline of 47.24% [4][10] - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to be 41.650 billion yuan in 2023, with a notable decrease in subsequent years [4][10] - The projected net profit for 2025 to 2027 is -5.966 billion yuan, 2.939 billion yuan, and 5.104 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of -16.72, 33.94, and 19.55 [4][10]