TME(US:TME) Bank of China Securities·2025-09-15 09:04Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,388, reflecting a 1.2% increase for the day and a 31.5% increase year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) closed at 9,365, with a 1.1% daily increase and a 28.5% year-to-date increase [1] - The MSCI China index showed a 1.3% increase for the day and a 34.7% increase year-to-date, closing at 87 [1] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude oil closed at $67 per barrel, with a 0.9% increase for the day but a 7.0% decrease year-to-date [2] - Gold prices reached $3,643 per ounce, marking a 0.2% increase for the day and a significant 38.8% increase year-to-date [2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 111.7% year-to-date, closing at 2,111 [2] Key Macro and Earnings Releases - The US Empire State Manufacturing Index reported an actual value of 11.9, exceeding the consensus of 4.9 [3] - The US Import Price Index showed a year-over-year change of -0.2%, against a consensus of 0.0% [3] - The Federal Funds Target Rate in the US was reported at 4.5%, higher than the consensus of 4.3% [3] China Internet Sector - Six key factors influencing the financials and valuations of China Internet companies in the next 6-12 months include AI, macro recovery, competition landscape, regulatory environments, shareholder return executions, and US-China tensions [8][10] - The ranking of sub-industries is as follows: cloud > online music = online game = online advertising > eCommerce > others [8][10] - Tencent, Alibaba, Netease, and TME are identified as mid- to long-term top picks, while Bilibili and Baidu are recommended for short-term investment [9][10] Auto Sector Update - The "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Automotive Industry (2025–26)" outlines 15 key initiatives aimed at expanding domestic consumption and enhancing supply quality [14][17] - The new plan emphasizes industry scale expansion and quality improvements, contrasting with the previous plan's focus on maintaining operations within a reasonable range [15][17] - Geely Automobile is favored for its market share gains, while NIO is expected to see a rerating due to operational improvements [16][18] Social Financing in China - The growth of outstanding social financing in China moderated from 9% in July to 8.8% in August, attributed to weakened government bond financing and subdued new loans [5][7] - Despite sluggish household consumption credits and mortgage loans, there is an increasing trend in household stock investment as savings have declined over the past two months [5][7] - Future growth in social financing is expected to stabilize with the advance of next year's bond issue quota for local government hidden debt replacement [6][7] Domestic AI Server Market - The domestic AI server market is projected to grow at 40% due to high demand for AI and uncertainties in Nvidia GPU supply [12][13] - Huawei, Cambircon, and Kunlunxin are ranked as the top three domestic AI platforms based on product competitiveness and supply stability [12][13] - There are concerns about oversupply risks in smaller computing clusters due to lack of economies of scale and inadequate technical support [12][13]