流动性跟踪周报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the liquidity situation from September 8 - 12, 2025, indicating that the capital market shows characteristics of tight - then - loose funds, rising interest rates in multiple areas, and changes in market trading volume and institutional behavior. It also points out the potential impacts and focuses of the capital market this week [1][2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Open Market Operations and Capital Availability - Last week, the open - market had 10684 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities and 12645 billion yuan of reverse repurchase injections, with a net injection of 1961 billion yuan. The central bank announced a 6000 - billion - yuan 6M buy - out reverse repurchase this week, and 3000 billion yuan of 6M buy - out reverse repurchases matured this month [1]. - This week, 13845 billion yuan of open - market funds are due, including 12645 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits. Due to tax - period disturbances, government bond issuance, and other factors, the capital market may face pressure, but with the central bank's support, the capital situation is expected to remain stable [5]. 3.2 Interest Rate Changes - The average DR007 was 1.47%, up 3BP from the previous week; the average R007 was 1.48%, up 2BP. The average DR001 and R001 were 1.39% and 1.43% respectively. The exchange repurchase rate also increased, with the average GC007 at 1.47%, up 2BP [1]. - The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit (CD) yield to maturity was 1.67% at the end of last week, showing an upward trend. The 1 - year FR007 interest rate swap average was 1.56%, also up from the previous week, indicating a marginally cautious market expectation for the capital situation [2]. - The 6M national stock bill transfer quote on the last Friday was 0.79%, up from the previous week [4]. 3.3 Repurchase Market Conditions - Last week, the pledged repurchase trading volume ranged from 7.3 to 7.7 trillion yuan, with the average R001 repurchase trading volume at 66263 billion yuan, an increase of 1630 billion yuan from the previous week. The outstanding repurchase balance at the end of last week was 11.7 trillion yuan, lower than the previous week [3]. - By institution, large banks' lending scale decreased, while money - market funds' lending scale increased. Securities firms' and funds' borrowing scales decreased, while wealth management's borrowing scale increased [3]. 3.4 Exchange Rate and International Situation - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.12 last Friday, down from the previous week, and the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed. Given the US inflation data and employment data, the market has high expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this week, with the main point of contention being between a 25BP and 50BP cut [4]. - From September 14th, China and the US held economic and trade talks in Spain on issues such as US unilateral tariff measures, export controls, and TikTok, and the progress of the talks should be monitored [4]. 3.5 This Week's Key Focus - This week, pay attention to stock market performance, redemption disturbances, the Fed's interest - rate decision on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision on Friday [5].