百润股份（002568）：渠道轻装上阵，期待H2潜在弹性表现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][17] Core Views - The company is expected to show potential elasticity in performance in H2 2025, despite a decline in revenue and net profit in Q2 2025 [1][4] - The company is continuously improving its product matrix, launching new products such as jelly wine and a light cocktail series, which are expected to contribute positively to sales [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 752 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.98%, and a net profit of 208 million yuan, down 10.85% [1] - The company's liquor products, edible flavors, and other businesses generated revenues of 1.297 billion yuan, 169 million yuan, and 23 million yuan respectively in H1 2025, with liquor accounting for 87.14% of total revenue [2] - The offline and digital retail channels achieved revenues of 1.311 billion yuan and 155 million yuan respectively in H1 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 9.63% and 0.57% [3] - The gross margin and net margin for Q2 2025 were 71.00% and 27.63%, showing slight year-on-year declines [4] - Operating cash flow for Q2 2025 was 155 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 592.30% [4] Financial Forecast Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.263 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 3.048 billion yuan in 2024, and then gradually increasing to 3.897 billion yuan by 2027 [5][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 809 million yuan in 2023 to 719 million yuan in 2024, before recovering to 990 million yuan by 2027 [5][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.77 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 0.69 yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 0.95 yuan by 2027 [5][11]